دانشگاه لرستان مطالعات جغرافیایی مناطق کوهستانی 2717-2325 7 2 2026 07 23 Performance Analysis of CMIP6 Models in Simulating Minimum and Maximum Temperature and Projecting Their Changes in the Mountainous Regions of Western Iran تحلیل عملکرد مدل‌های CMIP6در شبیه‌سازی دمای کمینه و بیشینه و پیش‌نمایی تغییرات آن در نواحی کوهستانی غرب ایران 1 22 729425 10.22034/gsma.2025.2053939.1062 FA صنم کوهی گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران. محسن حمیدیان پور گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران. 0000-0001-7389-172X محمود خسروی گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران. حمزه احمدی گروه آب و هواشناسی و ژئومورفولوژی، دانشکده جغرافیا و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران. 0000-0002-5040-7461 Journal Article 2025 02 21 1. Introduction Climate change is one of the most significant environmental challenges of the 21st century, driven by increased greenhouse gas emissions. It has a widespread impact on ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. Global warming is expected to pose significant challenges in the future. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are essential tools for simulating and assessing the effects of climate change and analyzing various atmospheric, oceanic, and land systems. GCMs simulate the global climate response to greenhouse gas concentrations and are widely used in climate studies. Owing to structural differences and varying initial conditions, these models produce different results, even under the same emission scenarios. Therefore, evaluating and refining their output is crucial for regional studies. The CMIP6 models demonstrated improved accuracy in simulating the daily minimum and maximum temperature parameters. According to IPCC reports, the global temperature is projected to increase by 2.1 °C to 5.3°C under intermediate scenarios and 3.3 °C to 7.5°C under pessimistic scenarios. Climate change has intensified extreme events, such as heatwaves and meteorological droughts, causing severe environmental and societal impacts. These changes affect water resources and agricultural production by increasing evaporation and transpiration, reducing soil moisture, and increasing water demand. Agriculture is highly dependent on climate conditions, and shifts in climate patterns can significantly reduce crop yields and overall productivity. Ultimately, climate change is a serious threat with major implications for natural ecosystems and agriculture. Agrometeorological phenomena, which directly influence crop production and yield, have become increasingly critical, necessitating special attention to climate and agricultural planning. 2. Methodology In this study, the highlands of the Central Zagros region including Kurdistan, Hamedan, Lorestan, Kermanshah, and Ilam—were selected as the study area, with Lorestan, Hamedan, and Kurdistan being the most important walnut-producing hubs in the region. This region, which spans an elevational range from 28 to 4,049 meters above sea level, was investigated for climate change impacts on temperature using observational daily minimum and maximum temperature data, baseline CMIP model outputs for the historical period (1985–2014), and projections from CMIP6 models under the SSP2-4.5 (moderate development) and SSP5-8.5 (high fossil-fuel dependency) scenarios for the near future (2021–2040) and mid‑future (2041–2060). Future data were obtained from the ESGF portal. Subsequently, after compiling data from national synoptic stations and the aforementioned models, five statistical metrics—namely CC, RMSE, NRMSE, ANMBD, and AARD—were computed. Using a combination of Pomerol–Romero normalization and the entropy weighting method, the best-performing models in terms of temperature simulation capability were ranked and selected. Furthermore, to quantify the uncertainty arising from inter‑model variability, the weight of each model was determined based on the deviation of its simulated mean from observed values during the baseline period, and a weighted multi‑model ensemble mean was estimated for both minimum and maximum temperatures across all time horizons. 3. Results and Discussion In this study, 15 models from CMIP6 were selected based on their resolution, availability of required data, and climate scenarios, and their performance in simulating minimum and maximum temperatures during the baseline period (1985-2014) was evaluated. The validation results using the RMSE index showed that the minimum temperature ranged between 3.51 and 8.25, while the maximum temperature ranged between 3.25 and 12.20. The correlation coefficient (CC) for both the minimum and maximum temperatures varied between 0.97 and 1. The ACCESS-CM2 and MIROC6 models had the highest and lowest accuracy for minimum temperature, respectively, while MPI-ESM1-2-HR and MIROC6 showed the same accuracy for maximum temperature. Based on entropy calculations, the NMBD index for the minimum temperature and the NRMSE index for the maximum temperature were identified as the most suitable criteria for selecting the best model. Ultimately, ACCESS-CM2, EC-Earth3, GISS-E2-2-G, FGOALS-g3, and MRI-ESM2-0 were chosen as the best models for minimum temperature, whereas NorESM2, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, INM-CM5-0, and INM-CM4-8 were selected for maximum temperature. After integrating the selected models, future changes in minimum and maximum temperatures were projected for two future periods (2021-2040 and 2041-2060) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results indicated that in the near future (2021-2040), the minimum temperature is expected to increase by 1 to 2°C, while the maximum temperature will rise by 0.8 to 1.1°C. In the mid-future period (2041-2060), the minimum temperature is projected to increase by 2.1 °C to 3.3°C and the maximum temperature by 1.8 °C to 2.1°C. The highest increase in minimum temperature was observed in Saqez, whereas the highest increase in maximum temperature was recorded in Qorveh and Saqez. Spatial analysis revealed that northern regions and higher elevations experienced the most significant temperature changes, whereas southern areas experienced smaller increases. These changes could have important implications for agriculture, plant phenology, and climate-related hazards. 4. Conclusion This study assessed 15 CMIP6 models and used an entropy-based multi-model ensemble approach to analyze temperature changes at meteorological stations across western Iran for two future periods (2021-2040 and 2041-2060) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results showed that the ensemble method provided higher accuracy than the individual models. The minimum temperature is projected to increase by 16.49% in the near future and 29.7% in the distant future, equivalent to 1.4°C and 2.5°C above the observational period, respectively. The highest temperature increase was observed in Saqez, whereas the lowest was observed in Khorramabad. High-altitude and northern regions showed greater sensitivity to temperature changes than low-altitude and warmer areas. These findings align with those of previous studies and can aid in managing temperature-related risks, phenology, and adaptation to climate change. Data Availability Statement Data available on request from the authors. Acknowledgements We are very grateful to everyone who assisted us in conducting this research. We would also like to express our sincere appreciation to the Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) for providing the high-quality meteorological data used in this study. Their cooperation and support were essential to the successful completion of this work. Ethical Considerations All authors affirm that this research was conducted in accordance with ethical standards, with no data fabrication, falsification, or plagiarism. Funding This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. Conflict of Interest The authors declare no conflict of interest مقدمه: تغییر اقلیم با افزایش دمای جهانی و رخدادهای حدی، تأثیرات چشم‌گیری بر کشاورزی، منابع آب و اکوسیستم‌ها داشته است؛ ازاین‌رو پیش‌نگری دقیق تغییرات دماهای کمینه و بیشینه برای مدیریت مخاطرات اقلیمی ضروری به‌نظر می‌رسد. روش: در این پژوهش، ابتدا داده‌های روزانه دمای کمینه و بیشینه از ایستگاه‌های هواشناسی کشور و خروجی‌های مدل‌های CMIP6 تحت سناریوهای SSP2-4.5 و SSP5-8.5 برای دوره‌های پایه (۲۰۱۴-۱۹۸۵)، آینده نزدیک (۲۰۴۰-۲۰۲۱) و آینده میانه (۲۰۶۰-۲۰۴۱) گردآوری شد. سپس، با محاسبه پنج شاخص آماری CC، RMSE، NRMSE، ANMBD و AARD و استفاده از روش نرمال‌سازی پومرال و رومرو و وزن‌دهی آنتروپی، مدل‌های برتر از لحاظ عملکرد در شبیه‌سازی دما رتبه‌بندی و گزینش شدند. در ادامه، به منظور کمی‌سازی عدم‌قطعیت ناشی از تنوع مدل‌ها، وزن هر مدل بر اساس اختلاف میانگین شبیه‌سازی‌شده با مشاهدات در دوره پایه محاسبه و میانگین وزنی همادی برای دماهای کمینه و بیشینه در تمام دوره‌های زمانی برآورد گردید. نتایح: نتایج نشان داد در دوره آینده نزدیک وضعیت دمایی 4/1 درجه سلسیوس و در دوره آینده دور برابر با 5/2 درجه سلسیوس نسبت به دوره مشاهداتی خواهد بود. که در این بین متغیرهای دمای کمینه و بیشینه ایستگاه سقز در هردوره زمانی بیشترین افزایش دما و ایستگاه خرم آباد کمترین افزایش دما را نشان میدهد و تحلیل فضایی نشان از تأثیرپذیری بیشتر دمای کمینه و بیشینه در مناطق پرارتفاع و عرض های بالا نسبت به مناطق عرضهای پایین و کم ارتفاع دارد. نتیجه گیری: نتایج نشان داد افزایش دمای کمینه و بیشینه در مناطق پُرارتفاع غرب کشور به مراتب بیشتر از نواحی کم‌ارتفاع است که می‌تواند فنولوژی محصولات و منابع آبی را تحت تأثیر قرار دهد. بنابراین تدوین سیاست‌های سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم به صورت منطقه‌ای و مبتنی بر ویژگی‌های محلی ضروری به‌نظر می‌رسد. یافته‌های این پژوهش می‌تواند در مدیریت منابع آب و تقویم کشت منطقه غرب کشور کاربرد داشته باشد.

https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_729425_851d2f3631eca66e0027d4ef9077d18b.pdf

دانشگاه لرستان مطالعات جغرافیایی مناطق کوهستانی 2717-2325 7 2 2026 07 23 Evaluating the efficiency of the WOFOST model to determine the effective climatic potential on rapeseed yield in Lorestan province سنجش کارایی مدل WOFOST جهت تعیین پتانسیل اقلیمی مؤثر بر عملکرد دانه کلزا در استان لرستان 23 42 737625 10.22034/gsma.2026.2066586.1108 FA مهدی صحنعلی زاده گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم‌آباد، ایران. بهروز نصیری گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم‌آباد، ایران. سجاد رحیمی مقدم گروه مهندسی تولید و ژنتیک گیاهی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم‌آباد، ایران. 0000-0002-2620-2669 مصطفی کرم پور گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم‌آباد، ایران. 0000-0002-5991-3803 Journal Article 2025 07 21 1. Introduction Rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) is known as the third most important oilseed crop in the world and is cultivated in a wide range of fields around the world due to its good characteristics such as resistance to drought, salinity, and cold, high rotation value, and high ability to compete with weeds. An acceptable share of the country's water resources (about 12 percent) on the one hand and favorable precipitation on the other hand have made it possible to cultivate and increase the cultivated area and production of rapeseed in Lorestan province. There are various approaches to assessing crop cultivation potential, including the direct approach of cultivating the crop in different years and regions, which would not be a suitable choice due to its high cost and time-consuming nature. Another approach for determining the potential of regions is to use a modeling approach and estimate the ability of each region to produce the desired crop. Accordingly, the present study aimed to evaluate the WOFOST model in simulating rapeseed growth and yield and identifying potential areas suitable for rapeseed cultivation in different counties of Lorestan province, considering different climatic variables. 2. Methodology This research was conducted in the counties of Azna, Aleshtar, Aligudarz, Borujerd, Pol-e Dokhtar, Khorramabad, Dorud, Kuhdasht, and Nurabad located in Lorestan province. The WOFOST model was used to simulate the growth and development of rapeseed. The statistical indices of nRMSE, d-index, and MBE were used to evaluate the model. Finally, zoning maps of rapeseed yield, rapeseed growth period, and climatic variables (average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature, and average annual precipitation) in Lorestan province were drawn using GIS 10.8 software. 3. Results The results of the calibration and validation showed that the WOFOST model simulated the growth and yield of rapeseed with high accuracy under potential and water-limited conditions. The soil moisture storage calculated by the model under full irrigation (irrigated cultivation) and rainfed cultivation were compared with the actual amount. In this evaluation, the WOFOST model was able to estimate the amount of stored moisture in the soil reasonably well. The highest average minimum temperature in the studied areas, with an average of 16.8 °C, belonged to Pol-e Dokhtar county, while the counties of Azna (5 °C) and Aligudarz (6.4 °C) in the eastern half of the province and the counties of Aleshtar (6.2 °C) and Nurabad (4.9 °C) in the north of Lorestan province had lower average minimum temperatures. In Lorestan province, the highest average annual maximum temperature was observed in the south of the province (Pol-e Dokhtar county with an average of 28.8°C), while the eastern regions (Azna and Aligudarz with averages of 20.6°C and 19.9°C, respectively) and the northern regions (Borujerd and Nurabad with averages of 22.1°C and 19.5°C) had lower average maximum temperatures than other regions of the province. Precipitation ranged from 373 mm in Pol-e Dokhtar county to 643 mm in Dorud county. The longest growing season was observed in Azna, Aligudarz, and Nurabad counties with an average of 161 days. On the other hand, the shortest growing season (99 days) was recorded in Pol-e Dokhtar county. The simulation results showed that the highest grain yield was produced in the eastern half of the province, especially in Dorud county (7957 kg/ha) and the north of the province, including Borujerd (6286 kg/ha). On the other hand, Aligudarz and Aleshtar counties had the lowest rapeseed yield. 4. Discussion The findings of this study showed that the central and eastern half of Lorestan province (specifically, Dorud county) had the highest rapeseed yield. Among the reasons for the high rapeseed yield in Dorud county can be attributed to the high rainfall (643 mm), the average favorable and cool air temperature (16.4 °C), and the long growth period (157 days) for photosynthesis and sufficient dry matter production. On the other hand, the counties of Khorramabad and Pol-e Dokhtar had a low average grain yield compared to other studied areas, which can be attributed to the inappropriate amount and distribution of seasonal rainfall on the one hand and the shorter growing season on the other hand, among the factors affecting the decline in rapeseed yield in these areas. The results of linear regression between grain yield and growing period length, average annual rainfall, and minimum and maximum temperatures also confirmed the above, showing that areas with high rainfall and long growing period had higher grain yield. 5. Conclusion In general, considering the suitable climate of the counties of Dorud and Borujerd and the minimum and maximum temperatures that are favorable for canola growth, as well as the amount and distribution of rainfall during the canola growth period, the development of canola cultivation in the aforementioned areas is more suitable than in other areas of the province. Author Contributions All authors contributed equally to all aspects of this study and approved the final manuscript. Data Availability Statement Data available on request from the authors. Acknowledgements Not applicable. Ethical Considerations The authors declare that this research was conducted in accordance with ethical standards and research integrity principles. Funding This study was conducted as part of a Ph.D. dissertation at Lorestan University. The authors acknowledge the financial and institutional support provided by Lorestan University. Conflict of Interest The authors declare no conflict of interest. هدف: کلزا یکی از محصولات دانه روغنی مهم در کشور است که از پتانسیل بالایی برای توسعه سطح زیر کشت و تأمین نیاز روغن کشور برخوردار است. به ‎منطور پتانسیل‎یابی کشت محصولات زراعی از جمله کلزا، می‎توان از رهیافت مدلسازی در مناطق مختلف استفاده کرد. روش: تحقیق حاضر با هدف ارزیابی مدل WOFOST برای شبیه‎سازی رشد و عملکرد کلزا در استان لرستان، و پتانسیل‎یابی مناطق مختلف استان جهت شناسایی مناطق مناسب کشت کلزا انجام شد. محدوده موردمطالعه جهت پهنه‎بندی عملکرد کلزا شامل شهرهای ازنا، الشتر، الیگودرز، بروجرد، پلدختر، خرم‎آباد، درود، کوهدشت و نورآباد بود. به‎منظور شبیه‎سازی رشد و عملکرد کلزا از مدل WOFOST استفاده گردید و واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی مدل با استفاده از شاخص‎های nRMSE، d-index و MBE مورد آزمون قرار گرفت. پهنه‎بندی عملکرد و متغیرهای اقلیمی نیز با استفاده از روش درونیابی در نرم افزار GIS 10.8 انجام شد. نتایج: نتایج حاصل از واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی نشان داد مدل WOFOST با دقت بالایی رشد و عملکرد کلزا را تحت شرایط پتانسیل و محدودیت آب شبیه‎سازی کرد. نتایج شبیه‎سازی نشان داد بیشترین عملکرد دانه در نیمه شرقی استان بخصوص شهرستان درود (7957 کیلوگرم در هکتار) و شمال استان شامل بروجرد (6286 کیلوگرم در هکتار) تولید شد. در طرف مقابل، شهرستان‎های الیگودرز و الشتر کمترین عملکرد دانه کلزا را داشتند. نتیجهگیری: به ‎طورکلی با توجه به اقلیم مناسب شهرستان‎های درود و بروجرد و برخورداری از دماهای کمینه و بیشینه مطلوب برای رشد کلزا و همچنین میزان و توزیع بارندگی‎ها در طول دوره رشد کلزا، توسعه کشت کلزا در مناطق مذکور مناسب‎تر از سایر مناطق استان است.

https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_737625_b95c6e727d495c562f086b49617ad32d.pdf

دانشگاه لرستان مطالعات جغرافیایی مناطق کوهستانی 2717-2325 7 2 2026 07 23 Spatial Analysis of Environmental Factors Influencing the Location of Neolithic Settlements in the High Zagros: A Case Study of Khanmirza County تحلیل فضایی عوامل محیطی مؤثر بر مکان‌گزینی استقرارگاه‌های نوسنگی در زاگرس مرتفع: (مطالعه موردی؛ شهرستان خانمیرزا) 43 64 738005 10.22034/gsma.2026.2093963.1177 FA رحمت عباس نژاد سرستی گروه باستان‌شناسی، دانشکده هنر و معماری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران. 0000-0003-1365-8904 سعید بابامیر ساطحی گروه باستان‌شناسی، دانشکده هنر و معماری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران. 0000-0001-7542-9440 علیرضا خسروزاده گروه باستان‌شناسی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد، ایران. 0009-0002-1694-966X محمود حیدریان گروه باستان‌شناسی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد، ایران. 0000-0001-5888-6770 Journal Article 2026 07 11 1. Introduction Human settlements result from continuous interactions between people and their natural environment and are shaped by a combination of environmental, cultural, economic, and social factors. Settlement patterns reflect how human societies adapted to environmental opportunities and constraints and therefore provide valuable evidence for reconstructing past human–environment relationships and cultural landscapes (Hodder, 1992; Wilkinson, 2003). Within this framework, landscape archaeology emphasizes the spatial analysis of archaeological remains to explain how environmental and cultural variables influenced settlement location and organization (Kantner, 2014). Advances in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have significantly improved the analysis of settlement patterns by enabling quantitative assessment of environmental variables such as elevation, slope, aspect, land use, water availability, and communication routes (Warren & Asch, 2000; Niknami et al., 2007; Trigger, 1967). Although archaeological surveys have identified numerous prehistoric sites in the southern High Zagros, particularly in Khanmirza County (Rezvani, 2009, 2010, 2011), the environmental determinants of Neolithic settlement location remain poorly understood. Using an interdisciplinary approach that integrates archaeological field survey data with GIS-based spatial analysis, this study evaluates the influence of key environmental variables on the distribution of Neolithic settlements in Khanmirza and compares the results with previous studies from other parts of the Zagros Mountains (Bahraminia et al., 2013; Heydari Dastenaei et al., 2017). 2. Methodology Settlement pattern analysis aims to examine the spatial distribution of archaeological sites and their relationships with environmental and cultural variables through data collection, subsistence reconstruction, spatial organization analysis, and evaluation of factors influencing site location (Hole, 1980). In this approach, variables such as elevation, slope, aspect, water resources, vegetation, and communication routes are considered key determinants of settlement distribution (Karimian et al., 2012). Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have become an essential tool for quantitative spatial analysis, enabling the reconstruction of archaeological landscapes and the interpretation of settlement patterns (Saeedi Harsini et al., 2012: 35; Yousefi Zoshk & Baghizadeh, 2012: 11). In the present study, systematic pedestrian survey data were integrated with documentary sources. The locations and characteristics of 20 Neolithic sites were recorded using GPS and subsequently analyzed in GIS and SPSS to evaluate the influence of environmental variables on site location and reconstruct the spatial settlement pattern of Neolithic communities in Khanmirza County. 3. Results Elevation analysis indicates that 55% of the 20 Neolithic sites are located between 1,929 and 2,308 m above sea level, 30% between 2,309 and 2,630 m, and 15% between 1,571 and 1,928 m. This concentration reflects both the mountainous topography of the High Zagros and the relative suitability of mid-altitude zones for Neolithic settlement. Slope analysis shows that Neolithic sites are distributed across seven slope classes, with the highest frequencies (30% each) occurring on 3–5% and 12–15% slopes. This distribution suggests that slope was not a primary determinant of settlement location, compared with water resources, elevation, and land use. GIS analysis indicates that the Neolithic sites are distributed across seven slope-aspect classes, with the highest frequency (20%) on eastern, southwestern, and northwestern aspects. As no aspect contains more than 50% of the sites, slope aspect was not a dominant factor in settlement location, compared with water availability, elevation, and land-use suitability. Analysis shows that 50% of the Neolithic sites lie within 862–1,817 m and 80% within 3 km of surface water sources, highlighting the fundamental role of permanent water in settlement location. These results indicate that proximity to water was one of the primary environmental criteria for Neolithic communities in Khanmirza. Half of the sites are located on irrigated agricultural land and 25% in open woodlands suitable for grazing. This distribution highlights the importance of mixed farming and herding, indicating that agricultural potential was the primary criterion for settlement location, followed by access to pastoral resources. Neolithic sites are distributed across several precipitation and temperature classes, with the highest frequencies (30%) occurring in intermediate rainfall (590.3–597.2 mm) and temperature (11.2–12.6°C) ranges. As no single class contains more than 50% of the sites, precipitation and temperature were less influential than water availability, land use, and elevation in settlement location. Analysis of traditional communication routes shows that 55% of the Neolithic sites are located within 801–2,000 m of local routes, highlighting the importance of accessibility in settlement location. The continuity of modern villages along these corridors suggests that some present-day routes may preserve ancient communication networks. 4. Discussion The spatial analysis demonstrates that Neolithic settlement distribution in Khanmirza was primarily controlled by environmental resources rather than by topographic or climatic constraints. The concentration of sites at mid-elevations (1,929–2,308 m) reflects both the geomorphological character of the High Zagros and the ecological suitability of these zones for permanent occupation. Although settlements occur across a range of slope gradients and aspects, their broad distribution indicates that these variables exerted only a limited influence on site selection. In contrast, proximity to permanent water sources emerged as the most significant factor, with most sites located within 3 km of surface water. Likewise, the dominance of irrigated agricultural land and open woodlands emphasizes the importance of a mixed farming–pastoral economy in shaping settlement patterns. Climatic variables, including rainfall and temperature, display no strong spatial concentration, suggesting that abundant water resources reduced their influence on settlement decisions. Finally, the clustering of sites near traditional communication routes highlights the long-term importance of accessibility and suggests continuity between prehistoric pathways and present-day local transport networks. 5. Conclusion This study highlights the importance of integrating archaeology and geography to explain Neolithic settlement organization in the High Zagros. Spatial analyses using GIS and statistical methods demonstrate that site selection in Khanmirza County was primarily influenced by permanent water availability, land-use potential, accessibility to communication routes, elevation, and, to a lesser extent, slope. The concentration of settlements near water resources, irrigated farmland, open woodlands, and traditional routes reflects a mixed farming–pastoral economy supported by favorable environmental conditions. Most sites are located between 1,900 and 2,300 m above sea level, suggesting that this altitudinal range provided optimal ecological settings, a pattern that remains evident in the region today. In contrast, slope aspect, precipitation, and temperature played comparatively minor roles. By combining systematic archaeological survey with spatial modeling, this research provides a robust framework for reconstructing human–environment interactions and prehistoric cultural landscapes. Despite the lack of detailed paleoenvironmental datasets, the findings offer a valuable basis for future interdisciplinary studies of mountain settlement systems across the Zagros and other regions of Iran. Author Contributions All authors contributed equally to all aspects of this study and approved the final manuscript. Data Availability Statement Data available on request from the authors. Acknowledgments This paper is derived from the first author's PhD dissertation and is based on the results of two seasons of archaeological field surveys conducted in the study area. The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the Research Institute of Cultural Heritage and Tourism, the Research Institute of Archaeology, the Cultural Heritage, Tourism and Handicrafts Office of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, the University of Mazandaran, and all members of the archaeological survey team whose assistance and fieldwork contributed significantly to the successful completion of this research. Ethical Considerations The authors declare that this research was conducted in accordance with ethical standards and research integrity principles. Funding This article is derived from the first author’s doctoral dissertation, which was developed based on the results of two seasons of archaeological fieldwork in the study area. The authors express their sincere gratitude and appreciation to the Research Institute of Cultural Heritage and Tourism, the Research Center for Archaeology, the General Department of Cultural Heritage, Tourism, and Handicrafts of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, and Mazandaran University for their cooperation, coordination, and support in carrying out this research. Furthermore, sincere thanks are extended to the members of the archaeological survey team, including Fatemeh Amirhajloo, Roya Khanjani, Marzieh Alipour, Motahareh Ramazani, Laili Jamshidi, Zahra Taherzadeh Naghneh, Salman Jamalpour, Esmail Heidarian, and Mohammad Pirchalili, undergraduate students of Archaeology at Shahrekord University, as well as Ahmadreza Hassani, a Ph.D. student of Archaeology at Art University of Isfahan, for their valuable participation Conflict of Interest The authors declare no conflict of interest. هدف: چگونگی شکل‌گیری نخستین استقرارگاه‌های انسانی و نقش عوامل محیطی در مکان‌گزینی آن‌ها از موضوعات مشترک و میان‌رشته‌ای باستان‌شناسی و جغرافیا، به‌ویژه جغرافیای کوهستان، به شمار می‌رود. الگوهای استقرار جوامع پیش از تاریخ، بازتابی از تعامل مستمر انسان با ظرفیت‌ها و محدودیت‌های محیط طبیعی هستند و تحلیل آن‌ها می‌تواند در شناخت فرایند سازگاری انسان با چشم‌اندازهای کوهستانی مؤثر باشد. پژوهش حاضر با هدف تحلیل فضایی استقرارگاه‌های نوسنگی و تبیین نقش متغیرهای محیطی در مکان‌گزینی آن‌ها در شهرستان خانمیرزا، واقع در بخش جنوبی زاگرس مرتفع، انجام شده است. روش: داده‌های پژوهش حاصل دو فصل بررسی میدانی باستان‌شناسی در سال ۱۴۰۳ است که طی آن ۲۰ محوطه نوسنگی شناسایی و ثبت شد. در ادامه، با بهره‌گیری از سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی (GIS)، موقعیت مکانی استقرارها نسبت به متغیرهای ارتفاع از سطح دریا، شیب، جهت شیب، کاربری اراضی، بارش، دما، فاصله از منابع آب و فاصله از راه‌های ارتباطی تحلیل و میزان اثرگذاری هر متغیر با استفاده از نرم‌افزار SPSS و با روش همبستگی پیرسون ارزیابی شد. نتایج: نتایج نشان می‌دهد که در محیط کوهستانی زاگرس مرتفع، متغیرهای فاصله از منابع آب، کاربری اراضی، فاصله از راه‌های ارتباطی و ارتفاع از سطح دریا بیشترین نقش را در انتخاب محل استقرار جوامع نوسنگی داشته‌اند، در حالی که شیب، جهت شیب و مؤلفه‌های اقلیمی شامل بارش و دما از تأثیر کمتری برخوردار بوده‌اند. تمرکز بخش عمده‌ای از استقرارها در ارتفاعات میانی، اراضی مستعد کشاورزی و مجاورت منابع آب و مسیرهای ارتباطی، بیانگر آن است که انتخاب مکان زیست بیش از هر چیز تابع قابلیت‌های اکولوژیک و ظرفیت‌های اقتصادی چشم‌انداز کوهستانی بوده است. نتیجه گیری: تلفیق داده‌های میدانی باستان‌شناسی با روش‌های تحلیل فضایی و ابزارهای جغرافیایی، چارچوبی کارآمد برای بازسازی الگوهای استقرار، تبیین روابط انسان و محیط و شناخت سازوکارهای سازگاری جوامع نخستین با محیط‌های کوهستانی زاگرس فراهم می‌آورد.

https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_738005_35b7445bfe1fd8bfd088df17dc90337b.pdf

دانشگاه لرستان مطالعات جغرافیایی مناطق کوهستانی 2717-2325 7 2 2026 07 23 The Inhibiting Factors of Rural Women Empowerment in the Mountainous Region of Southern Isfahan Province عوامل بازدارنده توانمندسازی زنان روستایی درناحیه کوهستانی جنوب استان اصفهان 65 92 733164 10.22034/gsma.2025.2057134.1080 FA سعیده رشیدی گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، ایران 0009-0003-0737-374X مجید یاسوری گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، ایران 0000-0002-8800-6196 سمیرا محمودی گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، ایران Journal Article 2025 04 09 1. Introduction In developing countries, women constitute a significant portion of rural populations and undertake various roles and responsibilities. However, they are often overlooked as a weaker segment of society, and more than half of them suffer from poverty, limited income opportunities, lack of healthcare, education, and other essential services. To enhance the role of rural women in the development of rural communities, their empowerment is essential. Women's empowerment refers to a process through which women gain high self-esteem, demonstrate confidence in speech and action, and develop the ability to face challenges and hardships. Empowered women are capable of analyzing and understanding various issues and utilize their capabilities to achieve their goals. By increasing and enhancing their skills across different domains, women can attain their desired objectives. When women become capable of performing tasks independently, gender-based discrimination is reduced, thereby creating the conditions necessary for empowerment. In the process of empowering women, agency and the structure of opportunities and resources play a pivotal role. Individual and collective assets and capabilities shape women’s agency. Agency is facilitated through access to capital. Capital refers to the resources that enable actors to benefit from social, economic, and political opportunities and become productive. These resources include both tangible and intangible assets such as education, wealth, employment, social relationships, and access to opportunities. These resources act as catalysts for women's empowerment. However, it is the conditions under which women access these resources that ultimately determine the extent of empowerment. Resources are distributed through the structure of opportunities, which includes both formal and informal contexts in which women operate—such as laws, regulations, institutions, and cultural frameworks. This distribution is often inequitable, and due to prevailing socio-political conditions, only limited resources are made available to women—or in some cases, they are denied access altogether. Therefore, there is a growing need for empowerment in rural communities, which requires a transformation in the conditions under which women can acquire resources. Empowerment is contingent upon such changes, and the interplay of various factors jointly creates different levels of empowerment. 2. Methodology This research is applied in terms of its objective and descriptive-analytical in terms of its method. The statistical population of the study consists of women aged 18 to over 65 years from three counties in the southern region of Isfahan Province, including Semirom, Shahreza, and Dehaghan. Out of the total rural population of this region (66,858 people), 31,785 were women. To determine a statistically reasonable sample size from this total population—specifically rural women in the southern region of Isfahan—Cochran's formula was used in conjunction with quota sampling (based on the number of women in each rural district). Data collection was conducted using a questionnaire distributed among 380 rural women. The face and content validity of the questionnaire were confirmed by subject matter experts and academic faculty members. The reliability of the questionnaire was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha, which yielded a reliability coefficient of 0.77. Data analysis was performed using SPSS software and included both descriptive statistics (frequencies and percentages) and inferential statistics (Friedman test, multivariate regression analysis, factor analysis, and path analysis). 3. Results The most significant barriers affecting the empowerment of rural women, in order of impact, include: Social barriers (e.g., lack of belief in women's abilities and capabilities to perform tasks), Security-health-educational barriers (e.g., lack of access to healthcare facilities, low levels of education among women, and absence of laws supporting women in society), Economic barriers (e.g., high interest rates on loans), Psychological-political-social barriers (e.g., lack of a sense of safety outside the home, limited access to educational opportunities), Financial barriers (e.g., insufficient income to start a business, limited access to land), Family-related barriers (e.g., low self-esteem and threats to personal dignity and honor), Ideological-educational barriers (e.g., lack of access to training classes and vocational skill development courses), Motivational barriers (lack of personal drive or incentive). The results of the path analysis revealed that, with the exception of political barriers, all independent variables also have indirect effects on the empowerment of rural women. Among all factors, socio-cultural barriers exert the greatest overall impact on women's empowerment, with a total effect coefficient of 0.591, while political barriers have the least impact, with a total effect coefficient of 0.164. Additionally, economic barriers (total effect = 0.503), infrastructural barriers (total effect = 0.443), and psychological barriers (total effect = 0.377) rank second through fourth in terms of their influence on the empowerment of rural women. 4. Discussion The results of data analysis indicate that the most significant barriers to rural women’s empowerment are as follows: In the economic dimension, the lack of oversight in the allocation and usage of credit facilities and loans, with an average influence of 6.55%; In the psychological dimension, the lack of motivation to carry out tasks and follow through with activities, with an average of 3.65%; In the political dimension, the absence of a sense of security in public spaces (e.g., streets), with an average of 2.29%; In the social dimension, the low level of education hindering participation in various village activities, with an average of 7.10%; In the infrastructural dimension, the lack of access to healthcare facilities, with an average of 2.05%. Therefore, identifying these barriers and proposing strategies to eliminate them can significantly contribute to empowering rural women. 5. Conclusion Given the limited knowledge of women in the fields of advertising and marketing, organizing training courses and workshops in marketing and e-commerce can significantly enhance their knowledge, attract customers, and increase the sales of their products. Training female instructors and extension workers is essential for addressing familial and cultural biases that hinder women's participation in educational programs, particularly in regions where traditional beliefs are prevalent. This approach will lead to improved educational opportunities for women and the development of their skills. Furthermore, fostering risk-taking attitudes and establishing women’s associations are recommended strategies to promote employment in the agricultural and handicraft sectors, especially considering women's limited access to banking and credit facilities. Author Contributions In the preparation and writing of this article, all authors (first, second, and third) have contributed equally and jointly. All stages of the research, from study design and data collection to analysis of results and final writing of the article, are the result of collaboration and collective agreement of all authors. Data Availability Statement Data available on request from the authors. Acknowledgements We are very grateful to everyone who assisted us in conducting this research. Ethical Considerations All authors affirm that this research was conducted in accordance with ethical standards, with no data fabrication, falsification, or plagiarism. Funding This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. Conflict of Interest The authors declare no conflict of interest. هدف: امروزه توانمندسازی زنان یکی از مهمترین دغدغه‌های قرن بیست و یکم است. در زندگی روزمره مشاهده می‌شود که چگونه زنان قربانی آسیب‌های اجتماعی مختلف می‌شوند و موانع مختلفی برای توانمندی آنان وجود دارد. بنابراین هدف پژوهش حاضر شناسایی موانع توانمندسازی زنان روستایی در ناحیه کوهستانی جنوب استان اصفهان بود. روش: این تحقیق به صورت توصیفی-همبستگی انجام شده و داده‌ها از طریق پرسشنامه جمع‌آوری شدند. جامعه آماری را زنان 18 تا 64 سال (21769 نفر) سه شهرستان ناحیه جنوب استان اصفهان تشکیل داده است. برای دستیابی به حجم نمونه مورد نیاز از فرمول کوکران و نمونه‌گیری سهمیهای (تعداد زنان در هر دهستان) استفاده شده است که بر طبق فرمول کوکران تعداد 380 نفر به عنوان نمونه تعیین گردید. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها از آمار توصیفی (فراوانی، درصد) و آمار استنباطی (آزمون فریدمن، تحلیل عاملی و تحلیل مسیر استفاده شده است). نتایج: نتایج تحلیل عاملی نشان داد که بیشترین موانع توانمندسازی زنان به ترتیب شامل موانع اجتماعی، امنیتی-بهداشتی-آموزشی، موانع اقتصادی، روانشناختی، موانع مالی، موانع خانوادگی، موانع اعتقادی و آموزشی و عدم انگیزه است. نتایج تحلیل مسیر نشان داد که همه متغیرهای مستقل به صورت مستقیم بر روی توانمندی زنان اثرگذار هستند. همچنین به جز موانع سیاسی همه متغیرها به صورت غیر مستقیم بر روی توانمندی زنان اثرگذارند. نتیجهگیری: نتایج نهایی نشان داد که با توجه به توانایی‌ها و پتانسیل‌های زنان جهت توانمندی آنان ارائه طرح‌ها و برنامه‌هایی نظیر ارائه وام و تسهیلات بانکی به زنان روستایی با نرخ بهره پایین، برگزاری دوره‌های آموزشی در زمینه بازاریابی، برگزاری دوره‌های مهارتی و کارآفرینی جهت اشتغال زنان توسط آموزش‌های فنی و حرفه‌ای، تشکیل نهادها و انجمن‌های زنانه در جهت حمایت از حقوق زنان در زمینه‌های مختلف ضروری است. این تحقیق تصویری جامع از وضعیت کنونی توانمندسازی زنان روستایی در ناحیه کوهستانی جنوب استان اصفهان ارائه داده است و با تلفیق منابع دانشگاهی و گزارش‌های میدانی، بینشی ارزشمند درباره مؤفقیت‌ها و چالش‌های پیش‌روی ابتکارات موجود در این حوزه فراهم می‌سازد.

https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_733164_99ec22b53c9a9a2fd82d8e27cc4069a0.pdf