https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/ Journal of Geographical Studies of Mountainous Areas en daily 1 Wed, 21 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0330 Wed, 21 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0330 https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_733836.html 1. IntroductionWhile Lorestan is considered one of the country's horticultural hubs, the share of this part of the province in exports is very low. This shows that Lorestan province, despite having very high capacities in the field of horticulture and the high quality of horticultural products, has not yet achieved what is desired in the field of horticulture and gardening. The existence of many unused capacities in the horticultural sector is an issue that, despite the measures and programs presented, no effective practical action has yet been implemented to use these capabilities. Paying attention to these capacities can pave the way for meeting the country's and the province's needs for many basic goods, creating more added value, and boosting exports. Realizing this requires the formation of some infrastructure in the production and processing of horticultural products and a fundamental transformation in the food industry. Creating transformation and complementary industries in the horticultural and agricultural sectors is one of the main axes for the prosperity of this sector. But in recent years, little attention has been paid to launching semi-finished projects or creating new units next to production centers. The development of these industries, in addition to increasing the price of more durable products and production, will create employment and economic prosperity. Meanwhile, the development of rural areas by establishing small and large industrial factories and workshops is a consequence of the increased attention of relevant authorities to this issue. At the same time, the development of processing and complementary industries in each region will lead to specialized and principled planning by agricultural specialists, and instead of producing abundant products above market needs in a short period of time, which will lead to a decrease in prices, an increase in waste and product losses, there will be an optimal use of agricultural and horticultural products, and in the long term, the livelihoods of the operators will be positively affected by this aspect of development. Therefore, the main purpose of this research is to investigate what factors affect the willingness of gardeners to sell their products to these industries directly if these industries are created and completed. But the most important solution to examine farmers' willingness in this field is to use psychological theories, which is why the health beliefs model was used in this study.  2. MethodologyThe information required for the study was collected by survey method and using a researcher-made questionnaire. The collected data were analyzed by SPSS and Amos software and with a structural equation modeling approach. The statistical population of this study consisted of gardeners in the central part of Kohdasht County, Lorestan Province (N=1000), and a sample size of 270 gardeners was selected based on the Krejci and Morgan table. The sample individuals were studied using a stratified sampling method with proportional assignment. 3. ResultsThe results obtained from the structural equation modeling of path analysis showed that the constructs of perceived intensity, perceived vulnerability, and perceived benefits have a positive, direct, and significant effect on the behavioral tendency of gardeners to sell their products directly to the transformation and complementary industries, and finally, the health belief theory can predict 83 percent of the changes in the behavioral tendency of gardeners. In this regard, it is recommended to highlight the harms caused by the current behavior of gardeners in the field of harvesting, transporting, and selling products among gardeners, as well as the benefits of selling products to these industries, including increased income, reduced waste, increased employment, etc., to significantly pave the way for gardeners to sell their products to the transformation and complementary industries. 4. DiscussionThe results of the study showed that perceived vulnerability, perceived severity, and perceived benefits are good predictors of the behavioral tendency of gardeners to sell their products directly to processing and finishing industries. Vulnerability means a person's feeling towards negative and destructive possibilities that may befall the person in the future if they do not change their current behavior. In fact, if gardeners examine and analyze the damages caused by their current behavior in the field of harvesting, transporting, and selling products, they will reach a series of challenges and damages, and their fear or resistance to facing these damages will lead to a change in behavior, which in this case is the delivery of produced products directly to processing and finishing industries and workshops. Basically, the health belief model assumes that people always try to behave in a way that reduces their risks, however, they first need to become sensitive to this issue and reach the understanding that they are at risk (Kien, 2015). Specifically, highlighting this issue among gardeners can significantly pave the way for gardeners to be motivated to sell their products to processing and complementary industries.5. ConclusionToday, poverty and unemployment reduction and job creation are the main issues of the country and are very important issues in the development of provinces and villages. The emergence of new opportunities for local and regional development is an important tool for industrial development. One of the issues that can be considered in the provinces with agricultural potential, especially horticulture, in the country is the establishment and development of transformation and complementary industries in this sector. Transformation and complementary industries, while playing a significant role in reducing agricultural product waste, will lead to the development of rural entrepreneurship and sustainable employment in the rural environment. In this study, an attempt was made to develop and propose, based on a strong and established socio-psychological model, namely the health belief model, a suitable framework for understanding and recognizing the factors influencing the behavioral tendency of gardeners towards selling their products directly to processing and complementary industries. Author ContributionsIn the preparation and writing of this article, all authors (first, second, and third) have contributed equally and jointly. All stages of the research, from study design and data collection to analysis of results and final writing of the article, are the result of collaboration and collective agreement of all authors. Data Availability StatementData available on request from the authors. AcknowledgementsThe current paper is adapted from a research assigned in Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, with a Grant Number of 1403.18, and financially supported by the university, thereby we declare our appreciation for their help. Ethical Considerations All authors affirm that this research was conducted in accordance with ethical standards, with no data fabrication, falsification, or plagiarism. FundingThis research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. Conflict of InterestThe authors declare no conflict of interest https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_735031.html Objective: In recent years, many small cities in the world have grown and seem more environmentally compatible: because the semi-rural and small-scale environment, with growing and developing economies and social conditions, creates sufficient services to achieve a high degree of self-reliance and autonomy. Some of them are under environmental pressure because decentralization programs and the distribution of power and facilities from large cities to lower levels (small cities) have not been implemented, and this is achieved by planning based on the policy of new roles for small cities. In this article, the relationship of this policy with various aspects of sustainable development has been evaluated. The study area is the small cities of Kurdistan province. Method: The research has an applied purpose and analytical nature, with library studies and data collection (researcher-made questionnaire), based on selected criteria. The statistical population includes 60 experts from municipalities and public, governmental and private institutions in Kurdistan province. The sampling method was stratified random sampling and the sample size estimation formula was the Cochran method. The statistical analysis method used was Pearson correlation coefficient, confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation analysis. Results: The research findings showed that the new role models of small cities in Kurdistan Province have an impact on various dimensions of sustainable social, economic and environmental development. In other words, it can be said that there was a significant relationship between the variables of this study. Next, the indicators of new role models and sustainable development of small cities were evaluated separately. The findings indicate that the indicators selected in the new role models are appropriate indicators for the sustainable development of these cities. Finally, the relationships between the variables based on the theory were evaluated using structural equations, the output of which showed that this relationship was confirmed. Conclusions: The results of this study show that new roles can lead to 52% of sustainable development of small cities, of which 27% is economic development, 26% is socio-cultural development and 34% is environmental development. These results indicate the importance of this policy in improving the sustainable development of small cities, especially in the environmental sector. https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_735028.html Objective: This study examines the significance of the Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari region in the transition from hunter–gatherer societies to Neolithic food-producing communities within the framework of prehistoric studies in central Zagros. Method: The study integrates data from previous fieldwork with results from new surveys conducted in 2024 in the counties of Lordegan, Khanmirza, and Falard, focusing on settlement pattern analysis. These surveys led to the identification of 53 Neolithic sites, some with multiple occupational phases and others with a single phase. Analysis of cultural materials, particularly pottery, enabled the differentiation of three distinct stages of pottery Neolithic in the region, one of which represents a previously unrecognized and emergent phase in the Bakhtiari Neolithic. Results: Field surveys led to identified 53 Neolithic sites in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, which are mainly located in valleys, and mountains slopes and terraces adjacent to permanent and seasonal water sources, and represent a settlement pattern consistent with seasonal animal husbandry and mobility. A typological study of pottery sherds identified three distinct cultural phases, indicating the continuity and evolution of indigenous traditions along with inter-regional interactions. The results confirm the determining role of environmental factors in the spatial organization of settlement and livelihood strategies. Conclusions: The findings of the field survey indicate that Neolithic settlement patterns in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, especially in mountainous areas, were strongly influenced by environmental conditions and were consistent with nomadic or seasonal subsistence. This study emphasizes the need to develop comprehensive research programs, develop interdisciplinary studies, and conduct systematic excavations to more accurately reconstruction of the Neolithisation process in this important part of the Zagros region. https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_731381.html 1. IntroductionRasht, the capital of Gilan Province, due to its unique geographical conditions—including heavy rainfall, proximity to the Caspian Sea, and an extensive river network—is constantly exposed to natural hazards, particularly recurrent flooding. In addition, the city’s strategic location and high population density have increased its vulnerability to human-induced threats and potential crises. In recent years, the occurrence of devastating floods and the resulting damages have underscored the urgent need to enhance urban resilience and adopt passive defense strategies. Moreover, uncontrolled urban development, the deterioration of parts of the urban fabric, and the lack of safety standards in building design have weakened Rasht’s urban infrastructure, making it less capable of withstanding disasters. Many residential and public buildings lack the necessary standards to resist earthquakes or waterlogging, and crisis management systems remain underdeveloped. These deficiencies, in emergency situations, can lead to irreparable human and financial losses. Passive defense, as a preventive approach, can enhance urban security and resilience without relying on military tools—through intelligent urban design and resilient architecture. However, Rasht has yet to implement a comprehensive plan for integrating passive defense principles into its urban development and construction projects. This raises a critical question: How can spatial-physical strategies based on passive defense be employed to improve Rasht’s urban resilience against natural and human-induced hazards? 2. MethodologyThis study is applied in nature and, in terms of data collection, follows an exploratory-descriptive and analytical approach. Methodologically, it employs both qualitative and quantitative research methods. Data collection tools include interviews and questionnaires. The statistical population of the study consists of two groups: The first group comprises experts and professionals in the fields of architecture, urban planning, and urban development, selected through convenience sampling, totaling 25 participants. The second group includes local residents of Rasht, selected through random sampling. Using Cochran’s formula, the sample size was determined to be 384 individuals. For data analysis, grounded theory methodology and SPSS software were employed.3. ResultsAt the metropolitan scale, six semantic units were identified under two main categories: the distribution pattern of vital centers and emergency access systems. At the neighborhood level, six semantic units were classified into two categories: resilient neighborhood unit design and secure collective spaces. At the building scale, 22 semantic units were extracted, encompassing a range of components including: principles of defensive design, technical building details, integration of indigenous knowledge and modern technology, climate-adaptive architecture, quantitative design standards (spatial indicators), creation of secure spaces, concealment principles, and structural reinforcement strategies. Subsequently, Pearson correlation coefficients revealed a strong and statistically significant positive relationship—at the 0/99 confidence level—between the dimensions of urban resilience and spatial-physical strategies of passive defense in architectural design. Furthermore, regression analysis indicated that, based on the adjusted coefficient of determination, 0/95 of the variance in the dependent variables (economic, socio-cultural, environmental-physical, and institutional resilience) can be explained by the independent variable: spatial-physical strategies of passive defense. 4. DiscussionThis study presents a systematic set of strategies at metropolitan, neighborhood, and building scales, offering a comprehensive model for enhancing urban resilience in Rasht. These strategies, grounded in the principles of passive defense and tailored to local characteristics, aim to reduce vulnerability to floods and earthquakes, improve access to emergency services, and extend the lifespan of buildings—thereby simultaneously enhancing urban safety and residents’ quality of life. Implementation of these strategies through public participation, the use of reinforced local materials, and the adoption of appropriate technologies not only positions Rasht as a successful model of resilient urban planning, but also contributes to long-term cost reduction and the creation of sustainable employment—laying the foundation for socio-economic development in the region. This research demonstrates that integrating traditional knowledge with modern technologies can serve as a national strategy for intelligently addressing environmental challenges and securing a safer future for the citizens of Rasht.  5. ConclusionThis study proposes a practical model for enhancing urban resilience in Rasht by offering spatial-physical strategies across metropolitan, neighborhood, and building scales. The implementation of these strategies—through the integration of indigenous knowledge and modern technologies—not only reduces vulnerability to hazards, but also contributes to sustainable development and improves the quality of life in Rasht. Author ContributionsIn the preparation and writing of this article, all authors (first, second, and et al) have contributed equally and jointly. All stages of the research, from study design and data collection to analysis of results and final writing of the article, are the result of collaboration and collective agreement of all authors. Data Availability StatementData available on request from the authors. AcknowledgementsWe are very grateful to everyone who assisted us in conducting this research. Ethical Considerations All authors affirm that this research was conducted in accordance with ethical standards, with no data fabrication, falsification, or plagiarism. FundingThis research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. Conflict of InterestThe authors declare no conflict of interest https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_730237.html 1. Introduction The class gap in large cities has clearly profound social and economic effects. This phenomenon not only leads to the formation of local communities by low-income groups in specific spaces but also results in these groups living in marginal areas that are particularly excluded from urban development and economic resources. This marginalization, due to a lack of access to public services and job opportunities, exacerbates inequalities further.the rapid urbanization, especially in developing countries, has caused informal settlements, or peri-urban areas, to emerge. These settlements often face multiple challenges, including inadequate basic infrastructure, limited access to necessary services and amenities, and high unemployment rates. Such conditions can lead to the exacerbation of social and economic inequalities and create a cycle of poverty and marginalization. (Brotherhood et al, 2022,18) Considering these challenges, it is essential to assess and evaluate urban policies and strategies that can help improve living conditions for these groups. Enhancing access to public services, implementing social support programs, and creating job opportunities may help reduce these gaps and improve the quality of life in marginalized areas. (Fayehun et al, 2022:32) The capacity building of civil organizations has led to the collective action of local stakeholders, brought the marginalized to the text, reduced poverty through mobilizing and strengthening human capacity, provided the prioritization of needs, the level of response to It elevates the beneficiaries of peri-urban settlements and establishes a link between managers and citizens (World Bank, 2006:1).  Weakness in capacity building and social development among immigrants, lack of structure and logical framework to participate in physical-social development (Gulka, 2015:5).   2. Methodology The research tool used for this study was a The descriptive research method is of the correlation type. The present research is applied in terms of purpose.  The required information was prepared through the researcher's questionnaire based on the study of the theoretical foundations and predictions of the research, and the required information was collected through the questionnaire. In order to determine the sample size based on Cochran's formula, 383 residents were determined. The validity of this questionnaire was also confirmed by expert professors in the field of informal housing.  In the present study, the internal consistency analysis method was used to verify the validity of the item and Cronbach's alpha method was used to verify the reliability of the questionnaires.   3. Results The results of the descriptive statistics of a sample examined in this research show that 63.7% of the questions are in the age group of 31 to 65 years, 66.7% of the questions are for 15 years, and 6.7% of the questions are for 15%. He lived in the study area for 25 years.   4. Discussion Reliability was examined through Cronbach's alpha tests, combined reliability, and the reliability of the reliability index was also examined through convergent validity and divergent validity, and the value of Cronbach's alpha in all 4 models is higher than 0.6, which indicates acceptable reliability. In the above table, the AVE value is more than 0.5 and it indicates the divergent validity of this model. Investigating the divergent validity also shows that all the constructs of the model in the present study are less than 0.9 and the divergent validity of the model is confirmed. In addition to the mentioned cases, it should be confirmed that the existence of colinearity between the independent variables in this research is less than 5 according to the criterion of Variance Inflation Index (VIF).   5. Conclusion  As it was concluded from the research findings section, the necessity and importance of civil organization indicators in studies of empowerment of the beneficiaries of informal settlements is an undeniable issue in urban planning studies, an issue that is unfortunately neglected in many cases, so it can be He said that the current research is in line with the studies of Javan and Hadiani, 2016, Mohed et al., 2013, Sajjadi and Sadeghi, 2008, as well as in foreign studies, with the studies of Carlson, 2017, Mil-Fellner, 2014, Carl Fair, 2012, but the fact is that in many studies in the department The theoretical foundations and the researches and the background of the conducted researches indicate that civil organizations have been less discussed and investigated. But what distinguishes the current research from previous research studies is to deal with the impact and review of the indicators of civil organizations on the level of empowerment of the residents of the study area, which indicates the unequal contribution of each of the indicators under review. The degree of solidarity in the creation of civil organizations indicates the need to pay attention to this topic in the studies of the empowerment of beneficiaries in the field of informal settlement within the scope of the study, therefore, it should be added that the concept of civil organizations, while being simple, can play a very effective role so that The findings of the present research showed that the most changes in the dependent variable can be explained by the presence of experts and the experience of civil organizations. Therefore, according to the discussions that were raised, the following items are suggested in order to increase the effectiveness of the empowerment of the beneficiaries of the peri-urban settlements in the scope of the study: 1) Conducting applied research in order to determine other indicators that influence the empowerment of the residents. 2) Increasing the number of experts in civil organizations in order to influence the role of civil organizations in empowering the beneficiaries by strengthening the presence of local people in popular organizations in the study area. Author Contributions In the preparation and writing of this article, all authors (first, second, and third) have contributed equally and jointly. All stages of the research, from study design and data collection to analysis of results and final writing of the article, are the result of collaboration and collective agreement of all authors.   Data Availability Statement Data available on request from the authors.   Acknowledgements We are very grateful to everyone who assisted us in conducting this research.   Ethical Considerations All authors affirm that this research was conducted in accordance with ethical standards, with no data fabrication, falsification, or plagiarism.   Funding This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.   Conflict of Interest The authors declare no conflict of interest https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_731590.html 1. IntroductionThe history of human settlements shows that these spaces have always been exposed to natural and human-induced crises, which have shaped and transformed their structures. Wars, natural disasters, pandemics, and climate change are among the crises that have produced profound social, economic, and environmental consequences. One of the main aggravating factors of such vulnerabilities is the unsustainable exploitation of natural and human resources, which has reduced the ability of settlements to recover and rebuild. In the contemporary era, the concentration of population and resources in cities has turned them into the primary hubs of development; however, this very concentration has also increased their vulnerability to crises. High population density, environmental pressures, and social inequalities have limited the ability of cities to respond effectively. Over the past two decades, emerging and epidemic diseases—particularly new viruses—have intensified inequalities by affecting multiple dimensions of urban life and have left disadvantaged groups more vulnerable. Climate change and environmental degradation have further increased the likelihood of new disease outbreaks. Under such circumstances, the concept of urban resilience has gained special significance. Urban resilience refers to the ability of a system to absorb, withstand, and recover from shocks and stresses. Beyond responding to crises, it provides a foundation for sustainable development and forward-looking urban management. In Iran, pandemics have had significant economic, social, and health-related impacts. Due to its specific geographical and social conditions, the city of Ilam is highly vulnerable to such crises and requires an in-depth resilience assessment to reduce shortcomings and strengthen its response capacity. Considering the high per capita consumption of vegetables and the large areas devoted to their cultivation, it is crucial to identify the factors that influence vegetable growers' environmentally conscious behaviors. Understanding these factors can help direct efforts toward more sustainable practices that protect both the environment and public health. 2. MethodologyThis study was conducted with the aim of spatially analyzing the dimensions of urban resilience in Ilam against pandemics. The main research question is: “What is the spatial distribution of resilience dimensions across different districts of Ilam?”The research is applied in purpose and descriptive–analytical in method. In the theoretical section, library and documentary studies were employed, while in the fieldwork stage, a questionnaire was designed and administered in 2024. The primary data were collected from the Statistics and Information Unit of Ilam Municipality and were then complemented by the opinions of 20 urban experts, forming the basis for the analysis. For weighting the indicators, the Shannon Entropy method was applied, and to rank the districts, the multi-criteria decision-making model CoCoSo was employed. Moreover, ArcGIS software was used to spatially analyze the level of access to different dimensions of urban resilience. 3. ResultsThe findings revealed that the distribution of resilience across Ilam is uneven. District 1, with a score of 4.38, demonstrated the highest resilience due to concentrated infrastructure and access to services. Districts 2 and 3, with scores of 2.80 and 2.77, fell into the medium range and require improvements, particularly in social and infrastructural dimensions. District 4, with a score of 0.67, showed the lowest resilience and significant weaknesses across all dimensions, especially the economic one, Economic dimension: Heavy dependence on subsidies, weak investment, and limited employment opportunities emerged as the main challenges. These factors undermine household economic capacity in times of crisis and weaken financial resilience, social dimension: Citizens’ participation in decision-making is low, and social capital is weak. Inequality and the lack of effective collaboration between residents and managers have reduced social resilience, Physical–infrastructural dimension: Shortages in healthcare services, weak public transportation, and the absence of open spaces have constrained crisis response capacity. Less privileged districts, in particular, face higher vulnerability due to insufficient medical facilities, Managerial dimension: A lack of coordination among institutions and the absence of integrated policies were found to be major challenges. Weak implementation of preventive programs and the lack of early warning systems have negatively affected crisis responsiveness. 4. DiscussionThe results indicate that Ilam’s urban resilience lacks coherence and balance. This condition stems from unequal resource distribution, managerial weaknesses, and low levels of citizen participation. The four dimensions of resilience operate in a fragmented and isolated manner rather than following a systematic and forward-looking approach, Economic: Heavy reliance on government resources and the lack of sustainable job opportunities have weakened financial resilience and increased poverty and vulnerability, especially in disadvantaged neighborhoods. Social: The absence of social capital and limited civic participation have hindered the development of support networks, Physical: A shortage of well-equipped healthcare centers, inefficient public transport, and weak health infrastructure have restricted the city’s ability to cope with epidemic threats, Managerial: The lack of integrated policies and institutional coordination has reduced flexibility and recovery capacity.  5. ConclusionTherefore, strengthening Ilam’s urban resilience requires a multidimensional approach. Key strategies include: fair distribution of resources, strengthening local institutions, promoting spatial justice, increasing citizen participation in crisis management, developing healthcare infrastructure, enhancing public education, and establishing early warning systems. These measures can make Ilam more resistant to future crises. Ultimately, urban resilience should not be seen merely as a short-term response to crises but as a foundation for sustainable and forward-looking development. Developing localized frameworks for assessing and enhancing resilience, alongside leveraging civic participation and institutional synergy, can pave the way toward sustainability and reduced vulnerability in the city of Ilam. Author ContributionsIn the preparation and writing of this article, all authors (first, second, and third) have contributed equally and jointly. All stages of the research, from study design and data collection to analysis of results and final writing of the article, are the result of collaboration and collective agreement of all authors. Data Availability StatementData available on request from the authors. AcknowledgementsWe are very grateful to everyone who assisted us in conducting this research. Ethical Considerations All authors affirm that this research was conducted in accordance with ethical standards, with no data fabrication, falsification, or plagiarism. FundingThis research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. Conflict of InterestThe authors declare no conflict of interest https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_735032.html 1.IntroductionThe Central Zagros mountain range, as one of the most important centers of biodiversity in Iran and part of the Irano-Turanian phytogeographic region, holds a unique position in ecological sustainability and in supporting the livelihoods of local communities. This region, which contains about 5 million hectares of Persian oak (Quercus brantii) forests, is not only important in terms of soil conservation, water cycle regulation, and climate moderation, but also directly and indirectly affects the lives of about 10% of the country’s population and more than half of Iran’s nomadic communities. However, in recent decades, factors such as land-use change, overexploitation, overgrazing, recurrent wildfires, pest and disease outbreaks, successive droughts, and climate change have caused extensive quantitative and qualitative decline of Persian oak forests. Oak dieback, especially in the Central Zagros, is considered one of the most serious threats to the sustainability of these forests. Since the Persian oak plays a keystone role in these ecosystems, identifying the environmental factors that determine its distribution and delineating suitable habitats is an undeniable necessity for sustainable natural resource management and conservation planning. 2. MethodologyThis study aimed to model the current distribution of Persian oak in the Central Zagros and to identify the most important environmental variables affecting its habitat. To this end, the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt), one of the most efficient methods for species distribution modeling based on presence-only data, was employed. The required data included 322 occurrence points of Persian oak across four provinces located in the Central Zagros (Lorestan, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, and Ilam) along with a set of environmental variables. Input variables consisted of 19 bioclimatic (BioClim) variables derived from daily data of 20 synoptic stations during 2000–2023, physiographic factors (elevation, slope, and aspect), and land use/land cover. Station-based data were used instead of simulated data or global datasets such as WorldClim and CHELSA to increase model accuracy in the mountainous and heterogeneous conditions of the region. Model prediction accuracy was evaluated using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) index.3. ResultsThe modeling results indicated that the MaxEnt algorithm, with an AUC value of 0.926, exhibited high accuracy and performance in predicting the distribution of Persian oak. Variable contribution analysis revealed that four factors—elevation, slope, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), and temperature seasonality (Bio4)—played the most significant roles in determining habitat suitability. Response curves showed that the probability of oak presence was highest in the elevation range of 1000 to 2300 meters above sea level. The species was also more frequent on slopes of 5–27 degrees, in north-facing aspects, and in areas with annual precipitation between 400 and 1100 mm. The habitat suitability map demonstrated that only 11.12% of the study area (about 15,038 km²) fell into the suitable habitat class. These areas were mainly concentrated in parts of Lorestan and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad provinces. 4. DiscussionThe findings indicate that Persian oak has a strong dependency on semi-humid conditions and specific topographic features. In other words, climatic and topographic constraints are the main determinants of the species’ distribution and establishment, and changes in these conditions can profoundly affect the sustainability of oak forests. The role of precipitation, particularly in the driest month, highlights the importance of moisture availability for oak survival and growth. Furthermore, the influence of temperature and its seasonal variability demonstrates the species’ sensitivity to thermal fluctuations and potential vulnerability to climate change. Comparison with previous studies shows that both climatic and anthropogenic factors simultaneously affect the dynamics and distribution of oak forests. For instance, Melkian et al. (2020) reported a marked reduction of suitable oak habitats in northern areas, with a shift toward higher elevations. Similarly, Mehri et al. (2024) showed that areas with high topographic diversity have greater capacity to withstand climate change, whereas traditional land use such as livestock grazing exerts additional pressure on oak stands. The present study also emphasizes that only a limited portion of the Central Zagros offers ecologically suitable conditions for Persian oak, and any human-induced pressure can further threaten this already restricted range. The use of station-based climatic data in this study enhanced prediction accuracy, as global datasets often fail to capture the microclimatic heterogeneity of mountainous regions. 5. ConclusionThis research demonstrated that the distribution of Persian oak in the Central Zagros is strongly influenced by climatic and topographic variables, and that only a small percentage of the region constitutes suitable habitat. These findings reveal the vulnerability of this species to climate change and human pressures, and can serve as a practical tool for identifying priority conservation areas, designing oak forest restoration programs, and managing natural resources sustainably. Given the ongoing trend of forest degradation in the Zagros, ecological modeling based on real data can provide valuable guidance for policymakers and natural resource managers in scientific and evidence-based planning. Therefore, it is recommended that future studies not only strengthen the climatic monitoring network in mountainous regions but also assess the impacts of climate change scenarios on the future distribution of Persian oak, in order to enable the development of adaptive strategies in response to environmental changes.In the preparation and writing of this article, all authors (first, second, and third) have contributed equally and jointly. All stages of the research, from study design and data collection to analysis of results and final writing of the article, are the result of collaboration and collective agreement of all authors. Data Availability StatementData available on request from the authors. AcknowledgementsWe are very grateful to everyone who assisted us in conducting this research.Ethical Considerations All authors affirm that this research was conducted in accordance with ethical standards, with no data fabrication, falsification, or plagiarism. FundingThis research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. Conflict of InterestThe authors declare no conflict of interest https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_729420.html 1. IntroductionNowadays, the deterioration of many villages is a global issue. Considering the rising trend of destruction and evacuation of villages and the decline of agriculture, sustainable tourism as a new strategy for revitalizing rural areas can play a very effective role in increasing the income and well-being of residents and increasing the quality of life. Therefore, revitalization and empowerment has become one of the main concepts of sustainable development. Rural development is to some extent a function of empowering villagers and empowerment is a key strategy for socio-economic revitalization and sustainable development of local communities and sustainable tourism is a new approach to realize it. In this context, rural tourism, especially in rural areas, can be considered as an opportunity to develop the natural and cultural resources of rural areas because it creates many economic benefits, improves the quality of life of the local community, and it can support some deprived and non-industrial areas. Mountain rural tourism is considered an excellent complement to the agricultural sector and prevention of rural and population decline.Tarom Township in Zanjan province has very beautiful and rich geographical landscapes formed by its vast mountains. Apart from being an agricultural pole, the touristic villages of Tarom have a high capacity in developing sustainable tourism. Therefore, the present study, using the qualitative research method and with the aim of investigating the effects of sustainable tourism development on the revitalization and empowerment of local communities, tries to answer the question that what effect does the sustainable development of tourism have on the revitalization and empowerment of rural communities?2. MethodologyThe current research is exploratory, and applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. The research method is a qualitative type of content analysis to discover, define and analyze the research topic. To use the qualitative method, the interview tool has been used. The interview technique and data collection method in the current research included semi-structured interviews using interview cards with open questions individually and taking notes of important points during the interview, as well as using theoretical literature related to the topic. In the direct interviews, the purposeful method and the snowball method were used to select samples. After coordination and agreement with the experts and interviews with the selected samples, it continued until the theoretical saturation stage. In total, theoretical saturation was achieved after conducting 18 direct interviews. On average, the interview lasted between 75 and 120 minutes. In order to analyze the data obtained from the interviews using the content analysis method, the extracted codes were categorized during three stages of coding, including open coding, central coding, and selective coding, and components and categories were identified. 3. ResultsIn general, the concepts related to the role of tourism in revitalizing and empowering local communities from the perspective of the interviewees of the research, in social and economic dimensions, were compiled in 12 social subcategories (components) and 8 economic subcategories (components), which according to the central questions and propositions listed In the text of the interviews, the role of tourism in revitalization and social empowerment and the role of tourism in revitalization and economic empowerment were divided into two categories. The main concepts to explain the role of sustainable tourism in the revitalization and social and economic empowerment of local communities in this research included 322 concepts and 97 categorization codes. The role of tourism in revitalization and social empowerment has 53 codes with a frequency of 162, and the role of tourism in revitalization and economic empowerment has 45 codes with a frequency of 160 codes. 4. DiscussionThe rural areas of Tarem city in Zanjan province, due to the potential of tourism in recent years, have witnessed the increasing expansion of businesses related to this industry, which has brought favorable and significant results in the economy of this region. Therefore, according to the high potential of tourism in this region, the strategy of revitalization and socio-economic empowerment of rural areas by relying on local capacities and especially sustainable tourism can be used as a comprehensive approach to face challenges such as unemployment, seasonal fluctuations and reduced production. Agriculture, climate change and the issue of drought, immigration, lack of facilities and welfare services and other environmental and human limitations should be taken into consideration. Therefore, it is necessary to identify, analyze and present the consequences of sustainable tourism development from the perspective of revitalization and empowerment. 5. ConclusionAccording to the results of the research, the findings from the interviews show that sustainable tourism can play an important role in the revitalization and social and economic empowerment of local communities. From a social point of view, sustainable tourism can act as an effective tool for revitalizing and empowering local communities. Promotion of local skills and capacities in activities related to tourism, increase of social capital, interaction and responsibility and place belonging, protection of cultural heritage are the most important consequences of sustainable development of tourism for revitalization and empowerment of rural areas. Sustainable tourism development can help to promote social justice and gender equality, strengthen social networks, stabilize the population, improve the quality of social life, develop educational capacities, strengthen cooperation and participation, improve access to basic services and improve health and social security. Planning, Development and the proper management of tourism by strengthening inter-sector links and empowering local communities, can help the socio-cultural revival of tourism destinations, and as a supplement to the agricultural sector, can prevent rural deterioration and population decline. From an economic point of view, tourism can be a powerful tool for revitalization.Author ContributionsIn the preparation and writing of this article, all authors have contributed equally and jointly. All stages of the research, from study design and data collection to analysis of results and final writing of the article, are the result of collaboration and collective agreement of all authors. Data Availability StatementData available on request from the authors. AcknowledgmentsThis paper was extracted from the PhD thesis of the first author with the title "Revitalization and empowerment of local communities by developing sustainable tourism capacities in rural areas, case study: touristic villages of Gilvan-Dram-Tehm axis in Tarom" in Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran. Ethical Considerations All authors affirm that this research was conducted in accordance with ethical standards, with no data fabrication, falsification, or plagiarism. FundingThis research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. Conflict of InterestThe authors declare no conflict of interest. https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_735029.html 1. IntroductionToday, it has been proven that changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme events will have a much more destructive effect on human health, social units, and natural systems than changes in the average climate state. Extreme weather events are phenomena that are rare in frequency and have a high degree of intensity and, when they occur, cause serious changes to the ecosystem and residents of the area. What this research seeks to find a scientific and noteworthy answer to is: What type of blocking is affecting the extreme temperatures of the southern coast of the Caspian Sea? 2. MethodologyThe southern coast of the Caspian Sea is located between the meridians of 34°48′ to 20°56′ East longitude and the latitudes of 44°35′ to 53°38′ North latitude in the northern half of Iran. In this study, to identify the days of freezing temperatures and their relationship with blocking, first, daily maximum temperature data from 7 stations of Astara, Bandar Anzali, Rasht, Ramsar, Nowshahr, Babolsar, and Gorgan for 25 years (1986 to 2010) were received from the Iranian Meteorological Organization. The criterion for extremely warm days was also considered the 90th decile of the maximum daily temperature. The blocking criterion used in this study is a modified version of the blocking determination that has been examined in TM90 and used in various studies. 3. ResultsBased on the geographical position of the southern Caspian Sea and previous research, four blocking regions were identified: the North Atlantic, Central Europe, Central Asia, and Siberia, located respectively within the longitude bands −30° to 0°, 0° to 30°E, 30° to 60°E, and 60° to 90°E. Calculation of the blocking index showed that out of 193 days with extreme (maximum) temperatures, 104 days exhibited no blocking pattern across these four regions, meaning that between 30°W and 90°E no blocking was detected according to the GHGS and GHGN indices and their required conditions.Among the remaining 89 blocking days, the blocking index was detected 21 times in the North Atlantic, 44 times in Central Europe, 20 times in Central Asia, and 4 times in Siberia. Factor analysis of the 500‑hPa geopotential height field for the 193 days identified five components governing the synoptic patterns associated with extreme temperatures along the southern Caspian Sea coast. Of the 104 non‑blocking days, 38 occurred in Component 1, 34 in Component 2, 29 in Component 3, 3 in Component 4, and none in Component 5.For North Atlantic blocking, 13, 4, and 4 days were assigned to Components 2, 4, and 5, respectively. For Central European blocking, 18 days fell into Component 1, 9 into Component 2, none into Component 3, 11 into Component 4, and 6 into Component 5. Central Asian blocking accounted for 16 days in Component 1, none in Component 2, 1 in Component 3, 3 in Component 4, and none in Component 5. Siberian blocking consisted of 1 day in Component 1 and 3 days in Component 3.Overall, four non‑blocking synoptic patterns—namely the subtropical high ridge, the subtropical high core, the westerly ridge, and the northward shift of westerly currents—controlled extreme temperatures on 73, 29, 26, and 10 days, respectively. Blocking patterns collectively accounted for 28.5% of all extreme‑temperature days. Among them, bipolar blocking (subtropical high core), bipolar blocking (subtropical high ridge), bipolar blocking (south‑trough type), bipolar blocking (westerly ridge), cutoff‑low blocking (subtropical high core), cutoff‑low blocking (subtropical high ridge), Rex blocking (subtropical high core), Rex blocking (subtropical high ridge), Rex blocking (westerly ridge), and Omega blocking contributed 1.04%, 5.18%, 0.52%, 1.04%, 1.55%, 2.07%, 0.52%, 8.29%, 0.52%, and 7.77% of the 28.5% blocking days, respectively. 4. DiscussionBlocking events significantly modified the pathways of westerly flows, which normally travel west–to–east. During blocking, the jet stream is deflected northward or southward, resulting in altered climatic conditions over regions located along its usual path. Typically, ridge regions experience warmer and drier weather under blocking, while trough regions undergo increased instability, cooler temperatures, and precipitation.In the warm half of the year, the subtropical high—especially its core and ridge—plays a dominant role either independently or in interaction with blocking systems. As midlatitude westerlies retreat poleward during summer, the subtropical high expands both zonally and meridionally toward higher latitudes. Depending on the strength and spatial extent of this expansion, the subtropical high sometimes drives extreme temperatures alone and sometimes amplifies them through synergy with various blocking types. 5. ConclusionBlocking systems are an important contributor to the development of extreme temperature events along the southern coast of the Caspian Sea, accounting for nearly one‑third of all occurrences. The distribution of blocking types across the identified synoptic components highlights the diverse atmospheric configurations that can lead to extreme heat. Additionally, the prominent role of the subtropical high—both in isolated form and in interaction with blocking—underscores its central influence during the warm season. Accurate diagnosis and prediction of these circulation patterns can substantially improve early warnings of heatwaves and strengthen climate‑risk management, particularly in temperature‑sensitive agricultural regions. Author ContributionsGiven that the present article is derived from a doctoral dissertation, the contributions and roles of the authors were as follows: the first author was the doctoral student, the second author served as the supervisor, and the third author acted as the advisor. Data Availability StatementData available on request from the authors. AcknowledgementsWe are very grateful to everyone who assisted us in conducting this research. Ethical Considerations All authors affirm that this research was conducted in accordance with ethical standards, with no data fabrication, falsification, or plagiarism. FundingThis research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. Conflict of InterestThe authors declare no conflict of interest https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_733163.html 1. IntroductionNowadays, the tourism industry is ranked among the world's high-revenue, clean, and low-cost industries. In recent decades, tourism has become one of the fastest-growing industrial sectors globally (Bahrami Nia et al, 2023). According to statistics, this industry accounts for approximately 10.4% of global GDP, 5% of total investments, and 7% of the world's exports. Furthermore, one in every ten jobs in the global economy is related to tourism (Roxas et al, 2020). Tourism has become one of the growing sectors in today's world, and its impact extends far beyond economic and business aspects. With the ever-increasing demand for travel and the transformation of the tourism industry into one of the largest industries worldwide, each country must strive to develop its socio-economic infrastructure and growth to attract potential tourists (Bagheri et al, 2024). Tourism plays a significant role in the new urban-rural agenda and achieving sustainable development goals regarding the creation of inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable cities, villages, and human settlements. Urban-rural settlements are highly important in terms of tourism activities for several reasons, such as being destinations, transit routes, and service providers for tourists. Tourist destinations encompass a wide range of attractions, accommodation centers, and other tourism facilities (Azhari & Rezvani, 2025). Theories of development and tourism have grown in parallel since World War II and share many common points. Initial research on tourism as a development tool was conducted by planners and economists working for organizations such as the United Nations, the World Bank, and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). During the 1960s, tourism necessarily aligned with development, which was considered part of the modernization paradigm. In this regard, it is believed that tourism increases foreign currency and jobs, and tourism expenditures, with multiplier effects, stimulate the local economy (Akbarian Ronizi, 2015).Today, tourism plays a notable role in the economic development of various regions. In addition to its economic aspects, this industry can bring about significant cultural and social changes at destinations and, through income distribution, job creation, and poverty reduction, contribute to social development and progress, creating public welfare and health. The underlying approach currently used in tourism planning and other types of development is the approach of achieving sustainable development (Taghvaei & Safar Abadi, 2021).The rural areas of Mazandaran Province, due to their numerous capabilities and potentials including fertile land and vast plains, suitable climate, and sufficient water resources are considered one of the most important agricultural hubs in the country. This province is also recognized as one of the most important and most visited tourist destinations in Iran. However, the dominant forms of tourism in this destination are casual and accommodation-based tourism, while the region, due to its numerous potentials and capacities, is conducive to developing countless types of special interest tourism, including agricultural tourism. The growing urban population and their interest in experiencing traditional livelihood methods, as well as the desire to escape everyday life and connect with nature, have also created the best opportunity for this type of tourism in rural areas (Pourfaraj & Naghavi, 2022). Therefore, given the importance of the issue, this study seeks to investigate the factors affecting sustainable agricultural tourism from the perspective of experts. 2. MethodologyThe present study is applied in purpose and, based on its paradigm, employs a mixed-methods (qualitative-quantitative) research design with an exploratory approach. It aims to identify the factors influencing the development of agricultural tourism and its role in the sustainable development of rural communities. Due to the breadth and multidimensionality of the topic, the factors affecting agricultural tourism in the context of sustainable development must be identified based on collective wisdom. Therefore, the fuzzy Delphi method, alongside content analysis, served as the foundation of this study. This approach not only facilitated effective engagement with experts in the field and rapid consensus-building but also, by utilizing fuzzy numbers instead of crisp numbers, enabled the achievement of results closer to reality. Accordingly, the research method was designed in three stages.The Delphi technique is a powerful process based on a group communication structure that is used in cases where incomplete and uncertain knowledge is available, with the aim of achieving group consensus among experts (Kenny et al, 2001). In the classical Delphi method, the opinions of experts are expressed in the form of definite numbers, while experts use their subjective competences to express their opinions, which indicates the probability of the uncertainty prevailing in these conditions. The probability of uncertainty is compatible with fuzzy sets. Therefore, it is better to obtain data from experts in the form of natural language and analyze them using fuzzy sets (Latifi et al, 2018). For this purpose, a proposal was made to integrate the traditional Delphi method with fuzzy theory under the name of the fuzzy Delphi method (Marie et al, 1985). In this method, membership functions are used to represent the opinions of experts (Kardaras et al, 2013).An important point in implementing the Delphi technique is the size of the expert panel. There is no consensus regarding the size of the panel required for traditional Delphi and fuzzy Delphi (Molen, 2003). However, the typical size of the expert panel is between 8 and 12, or between 10 and 18 people. In the present study, the expert panel members were a group of university professors, researchers, managers, and experts in agritourism, rural tourism, and rural development, including 18 people nationwide, who were identified and selected based on four characteristics: knowledge, experience, willingness, and sufficient time to participate in the Delphi stages using a purposive or judgmental sampling method.In the third stage, a researcher-made questionnaire was used to analyze the effects of factors influencing sustainable agricultural tourism. At this stage, the questionnaire items were designed based on the qualitative phase of the research, utilizing a five-point Likert scale (ranging from "Very High" to "Very Low"). The statistical population of this stage consisted of farmers who were the destination of agricultural tourism in Mazandaran Province. Accordingly, four counties with higher potential for agricultural tourism were selected as the sample: one county from the west of the province (Tonekabon), two counties from the center (Amol and Babol), and one county from the east (Sari). Simple random sampling with proportional allocation was employed, with a total sample size of 320 individuals. The precision of the indicators and items in the questionnaire, or face validity, was confirmed by experts. To examine the reliability of the research instrument, the questionnaire was distributed to a number of farmers, and the results yielded a Cronbach's alpha of 91%, which is an acceptable value. In this stage, a one-sample t-test was used to analyze the effects of factors influencing sustainable agricultural tourism. 3. ResultsAccording to the results of this study, several factors play a role in the development of agricultural tourism, and these factors themselves contribute to the sustainable development of rural communities. The results of the fuzzy Delphi of experts showed that the highest level of agreement regarding these factors and the role that these factors play in the sustainable development of rural communities include the possibility of participating in agricultural and livestock activities (direct experience of agricultural activities), being considered as an agricultural hub in the region, and the level of attention of the (local) government to planning and investing in the tourism sector. The lowest level of agreement among experts was related to providing facilities for cultivating new agricultural and horticultural products and medicinal plants, the excessive growth of second homes in villages, and having a historical opportunity.The results of the one-sample t-test showed that all four identified factors significantly impact sustainable agricultural tourism. These factors have a positive and significant relationship with sustainable agricultural tourism at a 99% confidence level.4. DiscussionBased on the findings, farmers' environmental The results of the study showed that the highest level of agreement regarding the factors affecting agricultural tourism and the role that these factors play in the sustainable development of rural communities included the possibility of participating in agricultural and livestock activities (direct experience of agricultural activities) (S=0.85), being considered as an agricultural hub in the region (S=0.85), and the level of attention of the (local) government to planning and investing in the tourism sector (S=0.84). The lowest level of agreement among experts was related to providing facilities for cultivating new agricultural and horticultural products and medicinal plants (S=0.69), the excessive growth of second homes in villages (S=0.71), and having a historical opportunity (S=0.71). 5. ConclusionThe aim of this study was to investigate the factors affecting agricultural tourism and the role of agricultural tourism in comprehensive local sustainable development. Over time, rural tourism, which has been influenced by the structure of mass tourism, has failed to provide what was expected of it as a solution to improve living conditions in rural settlements, because, like mass tourism, it is based on centralization and lack of participation of the host community in its growth and development process. For this reason, today, paying attention to specific forms of tourism in the process of rural development planning in the world with an emphasis on the sustainability axis is increasingly being considered. Tourism that does not harm the cultural and social values of the host community is called specific or alternative tourism. Alternative tourism can actively try to restore respect for cultural realities through education and organized treatment of tourists (Mahmoudi Chenari, 2020).One of the most popular and thriving types of alternative tourism is agricultural tourism. Agricultural tourism is an activity to attract tourists to a region in order to diversify agricultural activities and host tourists on the farm. Agricultural tourism, as an alternative strategy, can contribute significantly to sustainable rural and agricultural development (Anabestani and Mozaffari, 2018). This has received more attention, especially in countries and regions that have limited options for development (Matiee and Heydari, 2012). Based on these experiences, since on the one hand, most of the rural areas of Iran, especially the northern rural areas of the country where agriculture and rural life are more prominent, are not in a very good condition, and on the other hand, given that they have been highly sought after by tourists in recent years, it can be a platform for the development and prosperity of agricultural tourism activities, under the name of agricultural tourism, which can provide the basis for diversifying the rural economy and improving the quality of life of farming households. Author ContributionsIn the preparation and writing of this article, all authors (first, second, and third) have contributed equally and jointly. All stages of the research, from study design and data collection to analysis of results and final writing of the article, are the result of collaboration and collective agreement of all authors. Data Availability StatementData available on request from the authors. AcknowledgementsWe are very grateful to everyone who assisted us in conducting this research. Ethical Considerations All authors affirm that this research was conducted in accordance with ethical standards, with no data fabrication, falsification, or plagiarism. FundingThis research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. Conflict of InterestThe authors declare no conflict of interest https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_729421.html 1. IntroductionToday, tourism is one of the most important economic pillars of the world, which with its increasing development has become one of the main economic and investment sectors in the world, which will play an important role in the national development of countries in the future. Ecotourism is one of the types of tourism that is formed based on the use of natural and cultural capacities of rural communities for their economic and social development. According to the nature of the functions, requirements, activities, services, and considerations, the ecolodges  preserve and promote the cultural and social and even economic heritage of the local communities, and above all, to revive the cultural and natural heritage including literature, handicrafts. , local and native arts, local foods and drinks, styles, methods and patterns of agriculture and animal husbandry and other things related to rural life. The creation of ecolodges along with the activities and services that are done to recognize and introduce the environment, are formed in rural and pristine natural areas or historical contexts and are managed by entrepreneurial families and the local community interested in tourism.By creating conditions for development in small communities, eco-tours lead to local people's income, sustainable development and finally the development of villages. Ecotourism has a prosperous and bright future for local communities and will have many benefits, especially for rural communities and all nature travelers and tourists, and the creation of ecolodges will double this effect. The purpose of this research is to investigate the economic role of ecolodges in the economy of rural households in the eastern Alamut region of Qazvin province at both micro and macro levels. At the micro level, economic opportunities such as accommodation and hospitality services, tourism, and handicrafts are examined, and at the macro level, investment opportunities and the creation of tourism infrastructure are examined. 2. MethodologyConsidering that the purpose of this research is to find the effect of economic development on local communities and as a result to transform the village environment into a tourist destination, therefore, the research is applied in terms of purpose and the descriptive-analytical method has been used. The method of collecting information is questionnaire and field. In the field studies section, according to the desired indicators, a questionnaire was designed and after direct observations in the study area, information was collected and a researcher-made questionnaire was distributed and analyzed using SPSS and Excel software. The minimum sample size of local people to respond using Cochran's formula is 384 people. Using the snowball method and available sampling, 22 experts, 11 people from the district officials, including villagers and members of the village councils, and 24 people from the owners of ecolodges agreed to cooperate in this research. Finally, the total number of completed questionnaires is 440. 3. ResultsIn the sum of the responses of the four groups, the investment index with an average of 3.55 has the highest and the planning index with an average of 3.31 has the lowest effect on the effectiveness of ecotourism in the economy of rural households in the eastern Alamut region.In two-sentence tests and in questionnaires based on the Likert scale, first one point is determined and then it is divided into two groups, less and more than that point. That is, if the responses are measured on a 5-point Likert scale, a score higher than 3 is considered a success, and a value of 3 or less is considered a failure. With this explanation, in this test and according to the high output, the indicators of employment, income, investment, infrastructure, sales, education and cost have a significant difference at the 0/95 level. Also, no difference has been observed in the indicators of planning, production and migration, according to the respondents in the studied scale.4. DiscussionAccording to Friedman's test, the sales index with an average rating of 6.12, the education index with an average rating of 5.99, and the investment index with an average rating of 5.97 are the most important indicators affecting the role of ecotourism in the economy of rural households, and the indicators of Infrastructure with an average rating of 4.73, migration index with an average rating of 5.04 and planning index with an average rating of 5.15 have obtained the lowest rating. 5. Conclusionecolodges along with activities and services that are done to know and introduce the environment are formed in rural and pristine natural areas or historical contexts and are managed by entrepreneurial families and the local community interested in tourism. they become In this research, by observing and investigating in the field and using the results of the questionnaires, four groups of experts, local community, local officials and residence owners in the villages of Eastern Alamut district, the effects of the construction of ecotourism on the rural household economy were explained and clarified.In general, the results of the research show that the existence of ecolodges  and the presence of tourists in the studied villages have improved the life of the local community. The investigations and results of the research showed that due to the increase in the number of tourists in the eastern Alamut region, investment in the construction of ecolodges or the conversion of ancestral houses into residences is rapidly increasing, and the only concern in this regard is not observing the correct principles of construction. These ecologies are compatible with the environment. Also, the lack of legal permits from cultural heritage means that tourists who use this type of accommodation cannot follow up legally if they are dissatisfied with the services provided. The noteworthy point is the welcoming of the ecolodges owners to the tourism empowerment training courses, the more fundamental the training, the more tangible its effect in increasing income.Author ContributionsIn the preparation and writing of this article, all authors (first, second, and third) have contributed equally and jointly. All stages of the research, from study design and data collection to analysis of results and final writing of the article, are the result of collaboration and collective agreement of all authors. Data Availability StatementData available on request from the authors. AcknowledgementsWe are very grateful to everyone who assisted us in conducting this research. Ethical Considerations All authors affirm that this research was conducted in accordance with ethical standards, with no data fabrication, falsification, or plagiarism. FundingThis research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. Conflict of InterestThe authors declare no conflict of interest https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_735114.html 1. IntroductionUrban marginalization, as one of the consequences of uneven development, brings profound physical, social, and environmental challenges. Zanjan, the capital of Zanjan Province, located in the northwest region of Iran, has experienced rapid population growth and accelerated physical expansion in recent decades. This expansion has predominantly occurred in a dispersed, peripheral pattern, spreading into the surrounding lands. The peripheral areas of Zanjan, which were once primarily villages and agricultural lands, have now become arenas for rapid land-use changes, extensive migration, and the formation of heterogeneous urban fabrics. These areas serve as the connecting ring and transitional zone between the city and the countryside and, due to often fragmented and weak governance, are highly vulnerable.On the other hand, Zanjan Province, and specifically the periphery of Zanjan city, has increasingly faced prolonged droughts, declining precipitation, falling groundwater levels, and reduced surface water flow in recent years. This has undermined the economic and livelihood foundations of the area's inhabitants.In this context, the core issue of this research is to examine the deep and complex link between two crises: the environmental crisis (water scarcity and drought) and the urban crisis (unbalanced development and informal settlement). This link is forged through the key pathway of population displacement and migration. Drought and water scarcity, by destroying the agricultural and livestock-based livelihoods in the villages and small towns around Zanjan, create a powerful driving force for the forced or voluntary migration of these populations to the fringes of Zanjan city. This migratory flow is often unplanned and unguided.Consequently, several challenges underscore the critical importance of investigating this issue:Unbalanced Urban Development: Concentrated and rapid migration to the urban fringe, in the absence of spatial planning and necessary infrastructure provision, leads to dispersed, discontinuous, and heterogeneous horizontal expansion of the city. This reduces urban efficiency, increases service delivery costs, and exacerbates spatial inequalities in access to amenities (such as drinking water, electricity, sewage networks, public transport, green spaces, and educational and healthcare services) between the central and peripheral areas of the city.Formation and Reinforcement of Informal Settlements: Migrant populations lacking the economic means to reside in planned parts of the city inevitably resort to occupying and constructing dwellings on lands with unclear ownership, agricultural lands, riverbanks, or unstable slopes—areas typically located in these peripheral zones. This phenomenon fuels informal settlement. Due to the lack of permits and planning, these settlements lack minimum safety, health, and environmental standards and become hotspots for various social, economic, and physical problems.A Vicious Cycle of Vulnerability: The residents of these new informal settlements are themselves often exposed to new risks stemming from inappropriate location (such as floods, landslides, and pollution) and suffer from limited access to resources and services. This reinforces a vicious cycle of poverty, marginalization, and vulnerability. Furthermore, the destruction of surrounding agricultural lands for housing further weakens local food production capacity and the region's resilience.Based on this, the main research question of this study is: "What are the factors influencing the physical transformations of migration in the periphery of Zanjan city, with an emphasis on drought, and which ones hold greater importance?" Answering this question will provide a deeper understanding of the environmental-physical dynamics of Zanjan city and offer a scientific basis for integrated policymaking in water resource management, regional development, and urban planning. 2. MethodologyThis study is applied in purpose and objectivist-interpretivist in epistemological perspective, adopting a mixed-methods approach with a concurrent strategy. For data analysis, a one-sample t-test and hybrid multi-criteria decision-making models (FARAS + FCOPRAS) were used in the quantitative part, and Grounded Theory was employed in the qualitative part. 3. ResultsThe results showed that data analysis indicates the physical developments on the outskirts of Zanjan follow a dual and dangerous pattern of rapid but low-quality expansion. On one hand, there is a high pace of land-use change and settlement growth (averages above 3.5), and on the other hand, low housing quality, inadequate access to water and sewage (averages below 3), and high vulnerability to natural hazards (average 4.3) indicate the formation of fragile settlements that seriously threaten the health and safety of residents.Then, based on the Grounded Theory method, the destruction of rural livelihood resilience and the intensification of environmental hazards were identified as causal factors; structural deficiencies in resource governance and the lack of livelihood alternatives as contextual factors; and the physical-economic attractions of the city outskirts along with weak urban supervision and planning as intervening factors in the physical developments. Among these, the root factors at the origin (destruction of rural livelihoods and intensifying drought), with the highest score, are the main drivers of migration and subsequent physical developments. In contrast, the pull factors at the destination (such as cheap land and weak urban oversight) have played a secondary and facilitating role, highlighting the forced, rather than voluntary, nature of this migration. 5. ConclusionThe findings of this study revealed that physical developments on the outskirts of Zanjan have led to the formation of an unstable and vulnerable pattern. However, tracing the roots of this phenomenon based on Grounded Theory challenges the common perception in urban planning. Contrary to the prevailing belief that typically attributes the growth of marginalization to false urban attractions, this study emphasizes that the core of this issue stems from push factors at the origin (the collapse of rural livelihoods and increasing droughts). Urban pull factors (such as cheap land) have merely acted as a catalyst or facilitator in the process of forced migration. Author ContributionsIn the preparation and writing of this article, all authors (first and second) have contributed equally and jointly. All stages of the research, from study design and data collection to analysis of results and final writing of the article, are the result of collaboration and collective agreement of all authors. Data Availability StatementData available on request from the authors. AcknowledgementsWe are very grateful to everyone who assisted us in conducting this research. Ethical Considerations All authors affirm that this research was conducted in accordance with ethical standards, with no data fabrication, falsification, or plagiarism. FundingThis research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. Conflict of InterestThe authors declare no conflict of interest https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_729422.html Tourism is a phenomenon of the 20th century and cannot be ignored, but should be seen as a phenomenon that exists (good or bad). Every year, millions of people travel and no one can stop them from traveling, they will come, so let this movement be used as a source of development. In recent decades, a new branch of tourism has been formed, which It has a conscious relationship with inanimate nature. So that this term has an international scope today. Geosite and geomorphosite are two new branches in tourism studies that have entered the geography and tourism literature by emphasizing the determination of special places with tourism value. In fact, geotourism examines the characteristics of a place, including environmental, cultural, aesthetic, and geological heritage, and develops the well-being of residents. In geotourism, geomorphological phenomena are more dominant than other geological phenomena. These audiences are not only specialists and experts in geomorphology and geology, but also ordinary tourists and nature enthusiasts. Nowadays, most of the tourism markets have been affected by geotourism. This issue is affected by the number of tourists who are looking for natural and unique attractions. In other words, geotourism is a special form of tourism industry in which geosites are in the center of tourists' attention. A geosite can be a landscape of a group of various forms of land surface irregularities (landforms) or a single landform, a rock outcrop, as well as fossil layers of a particular fossil. This type of tourism is synonymous with geographic tourism, which aims to discover an area with all the natural and human elements associated with it. The most important sources and phenomena of geotourism are: caves, valleys, fractures, waterfalls, springs, rivers, depressions and folds, sediments of different geological periods, volcanoes, external igneous materials, floors Crystalline, stalagmites and stalagmites inside caves and cavities, cave and marine porches and columns, salt domes, hills and coral colonies, beach cuts (fjords), marl layers, boulders and pieces of large balanced stones, ripple marks of sand The flow and waves of the coasts, tidal water channels, windy sand dunes, watery and windy gorges and tunnels, grooves and stretches of layers and remnants of sedimentary fortifications, fossils, vegetation of upland lands and many shapes and sizes are important. The most works and phenomena of geotourism are for tourists to visit2. Methodology In this research method, firstly, through library studies, by reviewing documents and documents related to the subject, the required information and data have been collected. Then by examining topographic maps, field visits, landforms were identified and the location of each of them was determined. To achieve the goals of the research, a large amount of data from geomorphological places in different parts of the sample tourism area has been evaluated and these features have been set in cards as geomorphological place identification cards. After completing the sheets related to each landform to determine the potential and capabilities of the tourism land by geomorphological locations, the Prolong model has been used, which geomorphological landforms with four criteria (appearance beauty, scientific, cultural-historical and economic-social). can be checked. Specific criteria for determining each of the aspects of tourism in geomorphological landforms, including beauty, scientific, cultural-historical and economic-social, have been determined. With such a situation, the amount of tourism capabilities of a landform is the average of the above four indicators and is expressed in this way. 3. Results According to the values obtained from the calculation of the tourism value of the geomorphological places in the region and their comparison, the Stone Farm has the highest number (49.) and it can be considered as the most attractive geosite in the region. The reasons that have increased the tourism rate of this geosite include the existence of a very beautiful landscape in the mountain slopes leading to this geosite, the high level of science that shows the importance of this attraction and the possibility of reconstructing the past and present climatic conditions in the region. After this, Darandash Valley is ranked second with (41.) and the reason for this geomorphological place to get this rank is firstly because of its proximity to Darandash village, where it is possible to settle and use the facilities and proximity to it, and secondly, The reason is the accumulation of river and karst forms in a relatively small area of the river, which made the scientific quality of this geosite get a high score. In the next rank, Tudeh Inferi has been scored with (33.) and finally, Rock Fall is in the last place with a rank of (30.). In relation to the level of intensity of productivity, contrary to the level of tourism, Darandash Valley has taken the first place and Sangi Farm has been placed in the second place. The reason for this is the impassability of the access road to the stone farm, the lack of any amenities, and the lack of recognition and introduction of it by people related to geographic and geological sciences and other people who are somehow related to the issue of geotourism. Discussion Geomorphological landforms are a geomorphological complication that has scientific, cultural-historical, aesthetic and socio-economic value according to human understanding. These landforms may contain one or more geomorphological phenomena and landscapes, and human actions can cause them to change and transform, cause them damages and sometimes even destroy them. In the research literature, geomorphological landforms have been described with titles such as geomorphological capitals, geomorphological attractions, geomorphological landscapes, etc. In recent years, geomorphological heritages have been evaluated in terms of quality in the framework of titles such as: environmental assessment, natural heritage landforms, natural parks, etc. Field investigation and observation of satellite images showed. Darandash valley, rock fall, stone field, intrusive mass are the geomorphological landforms of the studied area.5. Conclusion . In general, the geomorphosites that have obtained the highest points are more suitable for investment and planning for tourism, and geosites with low https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_729423.html مقدمه جدایی‌گزینی‌ اجتماعی-فضایی در سطح محله‌های شهری یکی از ظواهر مهم نابرابری فضایی در شهرها شناخته می‌شود و می‌توان با فراهم آوردن ابزارهایی کارآمد، امکان ارزیابی و تحلیل دقیق وضعیت و شدت نابرابری‌های یادشده را پدید آورد. آشخانه، مرکز شهرستان سملقان در خراسان شمالی است و برآورد می‌شود جمعیت آن در سال 1403 نزدیک به 30 هزار تن باشد و چهار قومیت فارس، کرد، ترک و ترکمن در این شهر زندگی می‌کنند. در سال‌های اخیر با ورود جمعیت مهاجر روستایی به این شهر و همچنین خارج شدن شماری از ساکنان آشخانه که به شهرهای بزرگ‌تر به ویژه بجنورد مهاجرت کردند؛ ترکیب قومی جمعیت آشخانه تغییر کرد. هدف اصلی این پژوهش سنجش وضعیت جدایی‌گزینی اجتماعی-فضایی گروه‌های قومی در سطح محله‌های شهر آشخانه و تحلیل چگونگی تغییر و روند تحول آنها در سال‌های اخیر می‌باشد. به این منظور پرسش اصلی این پژوهش به این شکل صورت‌بندی می‌شود که ابعاد اجتماعی-فضایی جدایی‌گزینی سکونتی قومیت‌های ساکن در محله‌های شهر آشخانه در چه وضعی است و چگونه تغییر می‌کند؟ روش‌شناسی روش تحقیق مورد نظر، توصیفی تحلیلی و به لحاظ معرفت‌شناسی، با رویکرد کمی است. با توجه به آنکه روند تغییر وضعیت جدایی‌گزینی سکونتی در سال‌های گذشته و با تأکید بر دورة زمانی دهة گذشته مورد نظر بوده است، آمار جمعیتی و ترکیب آن در دوره‌های سرشماری پیشین به دست آمد. در طرح جامع آشخانه این شهر به شش محله تقسیم شد که به عنوان بلوک‌های آماری، واحدهای فضایی این پژوهش را شکل دادند. با توجه به پیچیدگی و چندبعدی بودن مفهوم جدایی‌گزینی سکونتی و با تأکید بر ابعاد اجتماعی-فضایی آن، شاخص‌های متفاوتی به کار گرفته می-شود. شاخص‌هایی که با استفاده از نرم‌افزار GSA اندازه‌گیری شده‌اند، عبارتند از: شاخص عدم‌تشابه دوگروهی، شاخص جدایی‌گزینی و شاخص‌هایی که با بهره گرفتن از نرم‌افزار GIS اندازه‌گیری و تحلیل شده‌اند عبارت هستند از: شاخص آنتروپی (شانون) و شاخص I محلی موران. یافته‌ها نتیجة محاسبة شاخص عدم‌تشابه برای هر یک از گروه‌های قومی ساکن در شهر آشخانه، به صورت نقشه‌هایی ارائه می‌شود که بر اساس آن می‌توان روند تغییر شاخص یادشده را اندازه‌گیری کرد. وضعیت شاخص محاسبه‌شده برای گروه قومی ترکمن، با وضعیت این شاخص برای گروه‌های قومی دیگر تفاوت آشکاری نشان می‌دهد. برخلاف گروه‌های قومی دیگر، در سال 1385 توزیع فضایی سکونتی گروه قومی ترکمن، همگن نبوده است. این عدم-تعادل در سال 1395 شدت بیشتری پیدا کرد و در سال 1402 شاخص عدم‌تشابه برای گروه قومی ترکمن نشانگر افزایش تعداد واحدهای فضایی درگیر در عدم‌تعادل فضایی سکونتی است و برای نخستین بار به اندازة قابل توجهی می‌رسد. از طرف دیگر مقدار شاخص جدایی‌گزینی با دسترسی مرزی برای گروه‌های قومی در سطح شهر آشخانه، مؤید بروز پدیدة جدایی‌گزینی فضایی و سکونتی میان گروه‌های قومی می‌باشد. به‌ویژه دربارة گروه‌ قومی ترکمن،‌ مقدار این شاخص، به نسبت بالاست که نشان‌دهندة شدت بیشتر جدایی میان گروه‌ یاد شده از سایر گروه‌های اجتماعی قومی است. وضعیت شاخص آنتروپی دربارة توزیع فضایی گروه‌های قومیتی ترکمن،‌ ترک و فارس به طور نسبی وضعیتی با حد بالایی از تنوع را نشان می‌دهد. به ویژه دربارة قومیت ترکمن، توزیع فضایی جمعیت در سراسر فضای شهری به شکلی نابرابر اتفاق افتاده است. به طور مشابه و با شدتی کمتر دربارة توزیع فضایی قومیت‌ فارس نیز چنین نتیجه‌ای می‌توان گرفت، اگرچه فاصلة اندازة شاخص آنتروپی شانون برای این دو قومیت، تا اندازة‌ بیشینة این شاخص، بزرگ‌تر است. در سوی مقابل، وضعیت توزیع فضایی قومیت کرد در واحدهای فضایی به طور نسبی، برابر و یکنواخت بوده است و ویژگی تنوع و مرکزگرایی دربارة این گروه اجتماعی ضعیف ارزیابی می‌شود. شاخص محلی موران نشان داد در سال‌های مورد مطالعه، توزیع جمعیت ترک و فارس‌زبان فاقد هرگونه خوشه‌بندی بوده است. اما در همین بازة زمانی، دربارة سایر قومیت‌ها به شکل و شدت مختلف، می‌توان نشانه‌های خوشه‌بندی در توزیع جمعیت را مشاهده کرد. بحث بالاترین مقدار شاخص عدم‌تشابه در سطح محله‌های شش‌گانة شهر آشخانه در میان گروه‌های مختلف اجتماعی، برای قومیت‌ ترکمن به دست آمد. بنابراین می‌توان نتیجه گرفت که بعد تمرکز از پدیدة جدایی‌گزینی سکونتی برای قومیت‌ ترکمن در شهر آشخانه به نسبت بالاست. روند کلی تغییر شاخص عدم تشابه دوگروهی برای همة گروه‌های قومی در سطح محله‌های آشخانه در فاصلة زمانی مورد مطالعه، رو به افزایش بوده است. اگرچه شدت و سرعت رشد این شاخص برای گروه‌های اجتماعی مختلف، برابر نبوده و برای قومیت‌های کرد و ترکمن با سرعت بیشتری رشد کرده است. از آنجایی که بخش زیادی از افزایش جمعیت شهر آشخانه در دو دهة‌ گذشته ناشی از مهاجرپذیری آن و بالاتر از رشد طبیعی آن و میانگین بلندمدت بوده است، گروه‌های اجتماعی جذب شده و مهاجرت کرده به آشخانه،‌ محله‌هایی که افراد از گروه قومی مشابه و همسان بیشتری داشته‌اند را به عنوان محل سکونت برگزیده‌اند و بر شدت تجمع و تمرکز این گروه‌های اجتماعی در سطح محله‌ها افزوده‌اند. نتیجة اندازه‌گیری شاخص‌های آنتروپی شانون و محلی موران نیز نشانگر پدید آمدن خوشه‌بندی و تمرکز در خصوص توزیع فضایی-سکونتی قوم ترکمن در شهر آشخانه هستند. نتیجه‌گیری مهاجران وارد شده به شهر آشخانه با افزایش دادن نرخ رشد جمعیت و توزیع فضایی نابرابر ناشی از سکنی‌گزینی بر پایة قومیت، روند جدایی‌گزینی سکونتی گروه‌های اجتماعی در آشخانه را تشدید کرده‌اند. سه قومیت ترک، فارس و ترکمن، با نسبت‌های مختلف، جدایی‌گزینی سکونتی بر اساس قومیت را تجربه می‌کنند. روند افزایشی شاخص‌های جدایی‌گزینی نشان می‌دهد که در مرحلة نخست مهاجران از گروه‌های قومی مختلف، تمایل دارند در محله‌های شهری ساکن شوند که همانندی قومی و زبانی بیشتری با ایشان دارد. ادامة روند، سازگاری مهاجران با فضای سکونتی جدید را در پی دارد و با ورود مهاجران جدید، روند یاد شده دوباره تکرار می‌شود. بدین ترتیب روند رشد و تشدید جدایی‌گزینی سکونتی گروه‌های اجتماعی بر مبنای قومیت و زبان در سطح محله‌های شهری افزایش می‌یابد. به‌نظر می‌رسد بررسی و مطالعة پیامدهای روند جدایی‌گزینی سکونتی گروه‌های قومی در کیفیت زندگی در محله‌های شهری و به‌ویژه مسکن شهری و دسترسی گروه‌های مختلف اجتماعی به خدمات پشتیبان سکونت و امکان استفادة عادلانه از امکانات و فرصت‌ها ضروری باشد. با در نظر داشتن اهمیت یکپارچگی و انسجام اجتماع شهری، هرگونه برنامه‌ریزی توسعة شهری در آشخانه، می‌بایست متوجه تنوع و تکثر قومی و سازگاری بیشتر گروه-های اجتماعی به منظور اختلاط و تعادل‌بخشی به توزیع جمعیت در سطح محله‌های شهری باشد. https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_729424.html The rapid growth of urbanization and industrial development has led to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, negatively impacting the quality of the urban environment. This has resulted in urban environmental pollution, a decline in citizens' quality of life, and reduced public health. Therefore, the primary objective of this study is to identify and analyze the spatial factors and urban land uses influencing carbon emissions in this metropolis. The research adopts a descriptive-analytical approach based on spatial and statistical data. Spatial analysis methods such as Moran’s spatial autocorrelation and the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model have been utilized. The results indicate that carbon emissions in Tabriz exhibit a clustered pattern, with the highest concentrations found in industrial areas, densely populated regions, and zones with high building density. Key influencing variables include population density, building density, road network density, industrial land use, commercial land use, traffic volume, and building occupancy rate, all of which significantly contribute to increased carbon emissions. Conversely, an increase in green space land use has played a positive role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. The findings suggest that unbalanced urban development, the concentration of polluting industries, high building density, and an extensive road network directly contribute to rising carbon emissions. Based on these results, it is recommended that urban policies prioritize sustainable development, focusing on optimizing land use, expanding green spaces, and reducing traffic-related pollutants. 1. Introduction Urbanization and rapid population growth have significantly altered the spatial structure of cities, leading to substantial environmental challenges, particularly in terms of carbon emissions. The increasing concentration of human activities, industrial development, and transportation networks has exacerbated the emission of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO₂), which is a major contributor to climate change. In this context, large cities, especially metropolises in developing countries, are experiencing severe environmental degradation due to unbalanced urban expansion, inefficient land use planning, and increasing reliance on fossil fuels. Tabriz, as one of Iran's major metropolitan areas, has undergone rapid and often unplanned urban development. This has led to a significant increase in the city's carbon footprint, with dense urban cores, industrial zones, and high-traffic corridors contributing to the highest levels of emissions. Previous studies suggest that urban form, spatial structure, and land use configurations are critical factors influencing carbon emissions. However, a comprehensive spatial analysis of these relationships, particularly within the context of Tabriz, is lacking. This study aims to analyze the spatial distribution of carbon emissions in Tabriz at the neighborhood level. By employing geospatial analytical techniques, it identifies the key determinants of carbon emissions and examines how urban spatial structure influences emission patterns. The research provides insights into how land use types, urban density, road networks, and green spaces interact to shape the environmental footprint of the city. Understanding these relationships is essential for designing effective urban policies that promote low-carbon development and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. 2. Methodology The research adopts an applied approach and employs a descriptive-analytical method. Data collection involves satellite imagery, census data, and urban planning documents. Geospatial analysis techniques, including spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I) and geographically weighted regression (GWR), were applied to identify spatial clusters of carbon emissions and determine the influence of variables such as building density, population density, road network density, land use types, and traffic patterns. 3. Results Findings indicate that carbon emissions in Tabriz exhibit a clustered spatial pattern, with significant correlations to factors such as industrial land use, building density, and road network density. High-emission zones are concentrated in industrial and densely populated areas, while the presence of green spaces effectively mitigates carbon emissions. The GWR model confirms that the spatial impact of these factors varies across the city, with industrial areas and high-traffic zones being the most significant contributors. 4. Discussion The results highlight the uneven distribution of carbon emissions and the role of urban form in shaping environmental sustainability. Compact urban development and efficient land use planning can contribute to carbon reduction. Additionally, integrating green infrastructure and promoting sustainable transportation are key strategies for mitigating emissions. 5. Conclusion This study underscores the necessity of spatially informed urban policies to curb carbon emissions in Tabriz. By prioritizing sustainable urban planning and adopting data-driven approaches, policymakers can foster low-carbon city development. The findings offer valuable insights for decision-makers aiming to balance urban growth with environmental sustainability. Acknowledgments Urban Spatial Structure, Carbon Emissions, Sustainable Development, Spatial Analysis, Tabriz Metropolis Based on these results, it is recommended that urban policies prioritize sustainable development, focusing on optimizing land use, expanding green spaces, and reducing traffic-related pollutants The findings of this research show that the carbon emission in the neighborhoods of Tabriz metropolis has a cluster pattern and is directly influenced by the urban spatial structure. In particular, factors such as building density, population density, road network density, industrial use, commercial use, traffic and the amount of green space play a key role in the amount of carbon emissions. The analysis of the results of geographic weighted regression shows that industrial use has the greatest effect on carbon emissions. https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_729425.html 1. Introduction Climate change is one of the most significant environmental challenges of the 21st century, driven by increased greenhouse gas emissions. It has a widespread impact on ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. Global warming is expected to pose significant challenges in the future. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are essential tools for simulating and assessing the effects of climate change and analyzing various atmospheric, oceanic, and land systems. GCMs simulate the global climate response to greenhouse gas concentrations and are widely used in climate studies. Owing to structural differences and varying initial conditions, these models produce different results, even under the same emission scenarios. Therefore, evaluating and refining their output is crucial for regional studies. The CMIP6 models demonstrated improved accuracy in simulating the daily minimum and maximum temperature parameters. According to IPCC reports, the global temperature is projected to increase by 2.1 °C to 5.3°C under intermediate scenarios and 3.3 °C to 7.5°C under pessimistic scenarios. Climate change has intensified extreme events, such as heatwaves and meteorological droughts, causing severe environmental and societal impacts. These changes affect water resources and agricultural production by increasing evaporation and transpiration, reducing soil moisture, and increasing water demand. Agriculture is highly dependent on climate conditions, and shifts in climate patterns can significantly reduce crop yields and overall productivity. Ultimately, climate change is a serious threat with major implications for natural ecosystems and agriculture. Agrometeorological phenomena, which directly influence crop production and yield, have become increasingly critical, necessitating special attention to climate and agricultural planning. The highland provinces of the central Zagros region, including Kurdistan, Hamedan, Lorestan, Kermanshah, and Ilam, cover the study area. Based on the studies conducted, the study provinces, especially Lorestan, Hamedan, and Kurdistan, are considered to be the main areas for walnut cultivation. 2. Methodology The Central Zagros highlands, including Kurdistan, Hamedan, Lorestan, Kermanshah, and Ilam, form the study area. Among them, Lorestan, Hamedan, and Kurdistan are the key walnut-producing regions. The area has an elevation range from 28 to 4,049 m. To assess climate change impacts on temperatures, observational data, baseline climate model outputs, and future projections were analyzed. Observational data included daily minimum and maximum temperatures, while CMIP models provided historical climate data (1985-2014) for evaluation. Future temperature projections (2021-2040, 2041-2060) were derived from CMIP models using SSP2-4.5 (moderate development) and SSP5-8.5 (high fossil fuel use) scenarios, with data sourced from ESGF. 3. Results and Discussion In this study, 15 models from CMIP6 were selected based on their resolution, availability of required data, and climate scenarios, and their performance in simulating minimum and maximum temperatures during the baseline period (1985-2014) was evaluated. The validation results using the RMSE index showed that the minimum temperature ranged between 3.51 and 8.25, while the maximum temperature ranged between 3.25 and 12.20. The correlation coefficient (CC) for both the minimum and maximum temperatures varied between 0.97 and 1. The ACCESS-CM2 and MIROC6 models had the highest and lowest accuracy for minimum temperature, respectively, while MPI-ESM1-2-HR and MIROC6 showed the same accuracy for maximum temperature. Based on entropy calculations, the NMBD index for the minimum temperature and the NRMSE index for the maximum temperature were identified as the most suitable criteria for selecting the best model. Ultimately, ACCESS-CM2, EC-Earth3, GISS-E2-2-G, FGOALS-g3, and MRI-ESM2-0 were chosen as the best models for minimum temperature, whereas NorESM2, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, INM-CM5-0, and INM-CM4-8 were selected for maximum temperature. After integrating the selected models, future changes in minimum and maximum temperatures were projected for two future periods (2021-2040 and 2041-2060) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results indicated that in the near future (2021-2040), the minimum temperature is expected to increase by 1 to 2°C, while the maximum temperature will rise by 0.8 to 1.1°C. In the mid-future period (2041-2060), the minimum temperature is projected to increase by 2.1 °C to 3.3°C and the maximum temperature by 1.8 °C to 2.1°C. The highest increase in minimum temperature was observed in Saqez, whereas the highest increase in maximum temperature was recorded in Qorveh and Saqez. Spatial analysis revealed that northern regions and higher elevations experienced the most significant temperature changes, whereas southern areas experienced smaller increases. These changes could have important implications for agriculture, plant phenology, and climate-related hazards. 4. Conclusion This study assessed 15 CMIP6 models and used an entropy-based multi-model ensemble approach to analyze temperature changes at meteorological stations across western Iran for two future periods (2021-2040 and 2041-2060) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results showed that the ensemble method provided higher accuracy than the individual models. The minimum temperature is projected to increase by 16.49% in the near future and 29.7% in the distant future, equivalent to 1.4°C and 2.5°C above the observational period, respectively. The highest temperature increase was observed in Saqez, whereas the lowest was observed in Khorramabad. High-altitude and northern regions showed greater sensitivity to temperature changes than low-altitude and warmer areas. These findings align with those of previous studies and can aid in managing temperature-related risks, phenology, and adaptation to climate change. https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_729426.html یکی از ابعاد چهار گانه تاب آوری شهرها، بعد کالبدی ـ محیطی است که شامل شبکه های ارتباطی و جاده ای، تأسیسات خطرناک، شریان های حیاتی ( آب، گاز، برق و مخابرات ) و تجهیزات شهری ( آتشنشانی و غیره ) می باشد شهرها یا جوامع تاب آور، جوامعی هستند که در تمام ابعاد تاب آور بوده و کمترین میزان تاب آوری را داشته باشند. زیرا تمام ابعاد به گونه ای با هم مرتبط هستند و آسیب پذیری یک بعد می تواند می تواند به طور مستقیم یا غیر مستقیم بر دیگر ابعاد تأثیر گذار باشد در صورت تاب آور نبودن فضاهای شهری، نبود پیش بینی های لازم و نداشتن آمادگی ها، خسارات جبران ناپذیری بر ابعاد مختلف اجتماعی و اقتصادی ساکنان محله وارد خواهد شد. محله های کم برخوردار معمولاً از لحاظ دسترسی به شبکه معابر و خدمات شهری وضعیت نامطلوبی دارند و در هنگام مواجهه با بحران، زیرساخت های شهری فرسوده و دچار آسیب می شوند. محله دره گرم یکی از محله های کم برخوردار شهر خرم آباد می باشد که به دلیل شبکه ارتباطی ارگانیک و دسترسی محلی و عرض کم معابر، ابنیه ناپایدار، ساخت و سازهای غیرقانونی و استفاده از مصالح ساختمانی کم دوام، تراکم بالای مسکونی و ریزدانگی اغلب قطعات، در هنگام وقوع زلزله زیر ساخت های شهری دچار آسیب می شوند و کار امداد رسانی را با مشکل مواجه می کند. با توجه به اینکه مطالعاتی که تاکنون در زمینه تاب آوری انجام شده است در محله های حاشیه نشین مطالعه و پژوهش ویژه ای انجام نشده است.لذا این پژوهش بر آن است که با بررسی ابعاد و مؤلفه های کالبدی، تاب آوری محله حاشیه نشین دره گرم را مورد بررسی قرار دهد. روش تحقیق اطلاعات مورد نیاز این پژوهش به دو دسته اطلاعات 1) اطلاعات مکانی و 2) اطلاعات غیرمکانی تقسیم می شوند. 1ـ اطلاعات مکانی: نقشه کاربری اراضی محله دره گرم 2ـ اطلاعات غیرمکانی: نتایج تمام شماری برای انجام پژوهش ابتدا داده های توصیفی جمع آوری شد و رقومی سازی لایه ها انجام گرفت. سپس بر اساس شرایط موجود از لحاظ عوامل مورد بررسی، با توجه به مدل ANP شاخص ها اولویت بندی شدند که بر اساس آن همپوشانی و تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها در محیط Arc Gis و نرم افزار Super Decision انجام شد. نقشه های معیار با توجه به اهداف و روش ANP با بهره مندی از 15 کارشناس علمی و اجرایی برای ارزیابی تاب آوری کالبدی محله دره گرم هنگام وقوع زلزله ارزشگذاری و طبقه بندی گردیدند. در این مدل معیارها در نظام شبکه ای قرار می گیرند و به صورت زوجی مقایسه می شود. در نهایت لایه های طبقه بندی شده با هم تلفیق شدند و نقشه نهایی در محیط GIS ترسیم شد. معیارهای دخیل در بررسی میزان تاب آوری کالبدی در مقابل زلزله عبارتند از: دسترسی به تسهیلات، تعداد طبقات، کیفیت ابنیه، راه های ارتیاطی، اجتماعی نتایج تاب آوری کیفیت ابنیه در برابر زلزله محله دره گرم نشان می دهد که مقداری از باشگاه سوارکاری و قسمت های مسکونی شمال غرب تاب آوری بالایی دارند و بقیه محله تاب آوری پایینی دارتد. نقشه تاب آوری دسترسی به تسهیلات در برابر زلزله در محله دره گرم نشان می دهد که قسمت کمی از شمال و شمال غرب و جنوب غرب محله دره گرم تاب آوری بالایی دارند و مساحت خیلی زیادی از محله تاب آوری پایینی در برابر زلزله دارد. تاب آوری تعداد طبقات در برابر زلزله در محله دره گرم نشان می دهد که شمال، در برابر زلزله در محله دره گرم نشان می دهد که قسمت های زیادی از شمال و شمال شرق و شرق محله تاب آوری بالایی دارد و مرکز، شمال غرب و جنوب محله تاب آوری پایینی دارد. تاب آوری اجتماعی در برابر زلزله در محله دره گرم نشان می دهد که شمال غرب محله تاب آوری بالایی در برابر زلزله دارد. کلی تاب آوری کالبدی محله در برابر زلزله در محله دره گرم نشان می دهد که شمال غرب و جنوب غرب محله تاب آوری بالایی در برابر زلزله دارد. همانطور که در نقشه های تاب آوری کالبدی محله دره گرم در برابر زلزله مشاهده کردیم محله دره گرم تاب آوری پایینی دارد که این مسأله باعث می شود در هنگام بروز بلایای طبیعی از جمله زلزله که مورد بررسی این پژوهش می باشد کار امداد رسانی را با مشکل مواجه کند و محل مناسبی برای اسکان اضطراری وجود نداشته باشد و یا اگر مکانی هم برای اسکان اضطراری وجود داشته باشد از کیفیت مطلوبی هم برخوردار نباشد و یا نتوان جمعیت زیادی را اسکان داد و با توجه به اینکه شبکه دسترسی در محله بیشتر بیشتر محلی هم می باشد این مسأله نیز خود کار امداد رسانی و آور برداری را نیز با مشکل مواجه سازد. بحث کشور ما نیز از این نظر جزء ده کشور آسیب پذیر از نظر بلایای طبیعی جهان به شمار می آید. چرا که طی 90 سال اخیر 120000 نفر از هموطنان بر اثر آن جان خود را از دست داده اند و در این بین بیشترین تلفات انسانی ناشی از زلزله بوده است و اما زلزله یک پدیده طبیعی همانند سایر پدیده های طبیعی نظیر سیل و طوفان و غیره است که در تبدیل آن به یک فاجعه، آسیب پذیری مجتمع های مسکونی نقش به سزایی دارد. نتیجه گیری تاب آوری می تواند یکی از مهم ترین اقدامات کارآمد قلمداد شود. یکی از ابعاد مهم تاب آوری در شهرها، ابعاد کالبدی آن است که در این مقاله به این ابعاد و تحلیل تاب آوری کالبدی زلزله در محله دره گرم شهر خرم آباد پرداخته شده است. با توجه به نتایج به دست آمده از نقشه تحلیل فضایی تاب آوری کالبدی محله دره گرم می توان استنباط کرد که شرق محله ( دره گرم شرقی ) و همچنین قسمت های زیادی از محله در غرب به جزء نوار کوچکی از شمال غرب و جنوب غرب به دلیل شرایط کالبدی نامناسب از جمله کیفیت ابنیه، تعداد طبقات، دسترسی به تسهیلات و راه های ارتباطی و جمعیت متراکم تاب آوری پایینی دارد. https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_729427.html A B S T R A C T Geomorphological processes, along with ethnic diversity, ecological resources, and cultural heritage, play a crucial role in creating or strengthening tourism attractions. This study aimed to identify the most important attractions and the criteria affecting their capabilities, while evaluating the geotourism potential of Sepidan County in Fars Province. Two methods were employed for data collection: library and field survey methods. The data collection tools included interviews and questionnaires, targeting a statistical population of elites, tourism specialists, geomorphologists, and geologists. For sampling, a purposive sampling method was utilized, involving 30 participants. The Pereira model served as the data analysis tool.According to the research findings, the average geomorphological rank of geomorphosites is 5.47, with an average management score of 3.95 out of 10. Despite the favorable geomorphological score, special attention must be directed towards management issues in the development of geotourism in Sepidan County. With the exception of Margoon Waterfall, the protection score of most sites is below 1.5, and in some instances, it is less than 0.75 out of 3. This indicates a pressing need for improved management of these locations. Furthermore, some sites lack the necessary infrastructure for overnight or multi-day stays, which diminishes their usability and consequently impacts the management scores of these geomorphosites. 1. Introduction In addition to its recreational dimension, tourism is an opportunity for economic mobility; therefore, it has become a top priority in development planning (Chim-Miki et al., 2020). As a branch of tourism, geotourism emphasizes the identification of special tourist sites from a geological and geomorphological perspective (Mokhtari et al., 2020). It is based on the identification and exploitation of tourist attractions with an emphasis on landforms and processes, focusing on the combination of cultural, historical, and ecological heritage with special tourist sites (Mokhtari et al., 2020); The goal is to identify and prioritize attractions, assess their capabilities, and ultimately manage geomorphosites (Amini Gheshlaghi et al., 2022), to achieve sustainable development of this industry (Mokhtari et al., 2020). The Iranian Plateau, with its geological background and unique geographical location, has diverse capabilities for geotourism development (Golimokhtari et al., 2018). It appears that the geomorphological attractions of Sepidan County, Fars Province, along with its cultural, social, and biological characteristics, have created a suitable potential for the development of geotourism. However, some of these geosites are not given due attention. In response to this issue, the hypothesis is proposed that despite the appropriate geomorphological attractions, more focus needs to be placed on geosite management issues in the development of geotourism. To address this, geosite evaluation models were used to examine the capabilities and criteria involved in the development of geotourism in the region, emphasizing two groups: intrinsic values and management values. An attempt was made to determine how management values influence the promotion of the geotourism capabilities of these geosites. In general, the purpose of this research is to identify and introduce the most important attractions and criteria affecting their capabilities to enhance the geotourism exploitation of the region. Obviously, if the capabilities of geomorphological attractions are considered in the tourism development programs of the county, there will be a greater chance of success in increasing their geotourism values. 2. Methodology Two methods, library and field survey, were used to collect the necessary data. The data collection tools included interviews and questionnaire completion. In completing the questionnaires, 30 individuals were selected from the statistical community of experts and related specialists using purposeful sampling. The Pereira model was also utilized as a data analysis tool. First, potential geosites in the region were identified through library studies, field visits, and interviews with knowledgeable individuals. After identifying the geosites, they were evaluated based on the information obtained from field surveys and the opinions of experts (questionnaires), employing the Pereira method. 3. Results In the final evaluation of the geotourism potential of Sepidan County, derived from the sum of the geomorphological and management factors, Margoon Waterfall is in the most favorable condition with a final value of 16.02. Chikan Waterfall ranks second with a value of 11.72, while Lake Barm Firuz is in last place with a value of 6.88. In examining the geomorphological factors of the geotourism potential of the county, it is observed that Margoon Waterfall is in the most favorable condition, while Tang Gamil is in the worst condition. Additionally, in comparing the management factors of geomorphosites, Margoon Waterfall remains in the most favorable condition, whereas Chellegah is in the worst condition. 4. Discussion The Pereira model was used to examine the geomorphological and management scores of selected geomorphosites in Sepidan County. In this model, the maximum geomorphological and management score that can be assigned to a geomorphosite is 10, resulting in a total score of 20. It appears that, apart from Margoon Waterfall, which ranks first by a significant margin, half of the selected geomorphosites have a relative potential higher than 10. The rest are in a condition relatively close to the average. The average geomorphological score of the geomorphosites is 5.47, while their average management score is 3.95 out of 10. Despite the appropriate geomorphological scores, special attention must be given to management issues in the development of geotourism in Sepidan County. With the exception of Margoon Waterfall, the protection score of most of these sites is less than 1.5, and in some cases, it is below 0.75 out of 3, indicating that management of these sites requires improvement. Additionally, some sites lack the necessary infrastructure for overnight or multi-day stays, which has diminished their usability and consequently their management scores. 5. Conclusion In general, it seems that the geomorphological capabilities of most selected sites have the potential to attract geotourists; however, their management scores and values need to be strengthened. It is essential to improve facilities and infrastructure, such as water, electricity, and roads, and to create a foundation for attracting private sector investment in developing welfare facilities at these sites. https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_730097.html This study investigates historical (1988–2017) and future (2020–2060) trends in extreme temperature and precipitation events across western and southwestern Iran. Daily observational data from 30 synoptic stations, along with outputs from CMIP6 climate models, were analyzed using 26 climate extreme indices based on CCL/CLIVAR recommendations. The Mann-Kendall test was employed to assess temporal trends. Results indicate a significant increase in warm temperature extremes (e.g., warm nights, warm days, and summer days) and a decrease in cold extremes (e.g., cold days, cold nights, and frost days) during the historical period, reflecting regional warming. Precipitation-related indices, including total annual precipitation, exhibited decreasing trends, though not statistically significant in many stations. Evaluation of the CNRM-CM6-1 model demonstrated strong performance in simulating daily temperatures but limited accuracy in precipitation projections. Future scenarios (ssp126 and ssp585) project a continued intensification of warm temperature extremes and further decline in cold extremes, while changes in precipitation extremes remain unclear. These findings underscore the critical need for adaptive water resource management, resilient agricultural planning, and informed climate adaptation strategies in response to projected warming and potential drought conditions. This study investigates changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in western and southwestern Iran during the historical period (1988–2017) and the future period (2020–2060). The data used include daily observations from 30 synoptic stations provided by the Iranian Meteorological Organization, as well as outputs from CMIP6 climate models. Using 26 extreme climate indices based on CCL/CLIVAR recommendations, temporal trends were analyzed through the Mann-Kendall test. The results for the historical period indicate an increase in warm temperature indices—such as warm nights, warm days, and the number of summer days—and a decrease in cold temperature indices—such as cold days, cold nights, and frost days—suggesting a regional warming trend. In terms of precipitation, total annual rainfall and related indices have declined, although these downward trends were not statistically significant at many stations. The evaluation of the CNRM-CM6-1 model shows that it performs well in simulating daily temperatures but has certain limitations in forecasting precipitation. Future projections under the ssp126 and ssp585 scenarios suggest that the upward trends in warm temperature indices and the downward trends in cold indices will continue, whereas precipitation extremes do not show a clear pattern of change. These findings carry important implications for water resource management, agriculture, and climate adaptation policymaking, emphasizing the need for flexible and adaptive planning to cope with future warming and drought conditions. In this study, to investigate changes in extreme climatic events in western and southwestern Iran, observational data on precipitation and temperature, along with outputs from CMIP model ensembles, were used to simulate these changes for the future period under two scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. After collecting the data and conducting preliminary statistical analyses, extreme climate indices were calculated for both the baseline and future periods. The trends of the indices were then assessed using the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimator. Finally, spatial maps of the intensity, duration, and frequency of the indices were generated. The analysis of temporal changes in warm event indices in the region showed that, for most stations, warm indices such as warm nights, warm days, the number of summer days, and the number of tropical nights generally exhibit an upward, increasing trend. The temporal changes in cold event indices indicated that, at most stations, cold indices such as cold days, cold nights, and the number of frost days generally show a decreasing trend. The analysis of temporal changes in warm indices in the study area showed that, for most stations, warm indices such as warm nights, warm days, the number of summer days, and the number of tropical nights exhibited an overall increasing trend. The behavior of these indices is influenced by the region’s geographic location, topography, and environmental conditions. The temporal variation of cold indices indicated a general decreasing trend in indices such as cold days, cold nights, and the number of frost days at most stations. Changes in these indices across the region are largely affected by terrain and elevation. A key conclusion drawn from the overall analysis of warm and cold extreme indices is the dominance of a warming trend and the expansion of hot and dry climate types in the southern and southwestern parts of Iran. The analysis of the frequency of precipitation extreme indices revealed a decreasing trend in annual total precipitation and daily precipitation extremes across various stations in the region. The results of precipitation extreme indices for the period 2020–2060 under the ssp126 and ssp585 scenarios indicated that, overall, no consistent trend is expected for these indices under either scenario. The findings for extreme temperature indices showed that future cold extremes in the study area are projected to decrease, while warm extremes are expected to increase. This upward trend in warm extreme indices is statistically significant for most indices across a substantial portion of the region. https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_732504.html 1. Introduction have posed significant challenges in achieving spatial justice, equal access to resources and services, and inclusive urban development. Despite the growing emphasis on the concept of the "inclusive city" in global urban development agendas such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals many cities continue to struggle with deep-rooted structural inequalities, especially affecting vulnerable groups such as persons with disabilities, the elderly, women, children, immigrants, and ethnic minorities. These groups often remain excluded from urban decision-making processes due to the lack of effective mechanisms for participation. In this context, the paradigm of participatory governance has emerged as a transformative framework for urban management, emphasizing citizen involvement, transparency, accountability, and social equity. Unlike traditional top-down models of urban governance that often rely on centralized decision-making within governmental institutions, participatory governance encourages collaborative interaction among public authorities, civil society, and the private sector. This model fosters the creation of urban spaces aligned with the diverse needs of residents and reinforces public trust and a sense of ownership. In Iranian cities such as Zanjan, characterized by rapid population growth, physical expansion, and uneven spatial development, the absence of inclusive governance mechanisms has exacerbated urban disparities. Therefore, identifying the role and impact of participatory governance in realizing inclusive urban principles is a critical research priority. This study aims to address the following questions: What role does participatory governance play in realizing inclusive cities? And which components of participatory governance have the most significant influence on urban inclusivity? 2. Methodology This study employed a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative and quantitative techniques. In the qualitative phase, a comprehensive literature review was conducted to extract key components of participatory governance and inclusive urban development. Subsequently, these components were refined and evaluated using the fuzzy Delphi method, with input from 35 experts in urban studies, selected through purposive sampling based on their academic experience and expertise. In the quantitative phase, structural equation modeling (SEM) using Smart PLS software was applied to analyze the causal relationships between components. The questionnaire was validated through both face validity and construct validity using confirmatory factor analysis. The reliability of the tool was confirmed by Cronbach's alpha coefficients above 0.7 for all main constructs. For convergent validity, Composite Reliability (CR) and Average Variance Extracted (AVE) were calculated, where AVE values greater than 0.5 indicated acceptable convergent validity. The research focused on five main components of participatory governance-transparency and accountability, participation and dialogue, rule of law, justice, and efficiency and effectiveness-and three main components of inclusive cities-social, economic, and spatial inclusion. 3. Results The fuzzy Delphi analysis revealed that out of 87 initially identified components, 42 components achieved fuzzy scores above 0.7 and were thus confirmed by the panel of experts as key variables in achieving inclusive urban development in Zanjan. These included: Transparency and Accountability: components such as public access to decision-making processes, existence of transparent procedures, and mechanisms for feedback and evaluation were highly rated. Participation and Dialogue: meaningful participation of vulnerable groups, structured platforms for participation, and the use of digital participatory tools were among the most influential subcomponents. Rule of Law: legal mandates for public participation and institutionalization of citizen involvement in neighborhood councils showed strong influence. Justice: equitable access to decision-making, support for grassroots initiatives, and empowerment of marginalized voices were identified as critical. Efficiency and Effectiveness: ongoing citizen engagement, prioritization of real citizen needs, and cooperation among municipal authorities, civil society, and the private sector were highlighted. 4. Discussion The findings of this research confirm that participatory governance is not merely a procedural or symbolic approach, but a substantive framework capable of addressing urban inequalities and fostering inclusive development. In the case of Zanjan, the establishment of participatory platforms, legal frameworks that support inclusive decision-making, and transparent urban governance practices can significantly contribute to the realization of inclusive city principles. This study highlights the necessity of shifting from centralized, top-down planning toward inclusive governance structures that recognize the diverse voices and needs of all urban residents. The integration of participatory governance into urban policy and planning enhances public trust, promotes social cohesion, and ultimately leads to more equitable, sustainable, and resilient cities. Therefore, participatory governance should be viewed as an instrumental mechanism to achieve inclusive urban development, where inclusive cities serve as the ultimate goal and participatory governance provides the strategic pathway. 5. Conclusion Structural equation modeling confirmed the significance of these components in influencing inclusive city principles. The analysis indicated that participatory governance improves social inclusion by amplifying citizen voice and enhancing access to urban resources; enhances spatial inclusion by supporting fair distribution of services and facilities; and contributes to economic inclusion by strengthening institutional support and reducing barriers to participation. Moreover, the results underscore the importance of system-level thinking in urban governance, where social capital, local empowerment, and institutional trust serve as mediators for achieving urban resilience and inclusive development. The positive path coefficients in the SEM model further demonstrated that as levels of transparency, participation, and justice increase, the likelihood of achieving inclusive urban outcomes also rises. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_732983.html 1. Introduction Sports is one of the most common factors in motivating tourists. In other words, sports are one of the important activities of tourists while traveling, and tourism and travel are also associated with various types of sports. Today, sports tourism plays an important role in the national economy of countries and is influential in the social and economic development of society, and creates employment, financial turnover, and income in society. Therefore, today, sports activities that are carried out in the natural environment have gained increasing importance and have become a tool for developing and strengthening culture and sports. Sports such as mountaineering, hiking, rock climbing, skiing, paragliding, motocross, mountain biking, off-roading, boating, fishing, diving, jet skiing, nature walks and multi-sports have also become very popular and are known as nature-based sports tourism. The importance of paying attention to nature-based sports tourism is because it can simultaneously have multi-faceted benefits for tourists and locals; on the one hand, it plays an increasing role in promoting aerobic and healthy sports among tourists, and on the other hand, it draws tourists' attention to national assets and world natural heritage; as a result, it will be an incentive to introduce and preserve the environment. Naghan district is home to a series of mountain villages with impressive and pristine natural landscapes. This region has great potential for the development of various types of tourism, especially sports and nature tourism, due to its special topographic location, climate diversity, water resources, high altitudes and diverse vegetation. Among these villages, there are areas with a unique location for the development of adventure and sports tourism that should be given attention by local officials and managers 2. Methodology The research method is descriptive-analytical in nature and applied in terms of purpose, and the theoretical foundations of the present study were organized in a documentary manner. Due to the lack of a database related to sports tourism in the mountainous areas of the study area in the responsible organizations, the main data were collected with the help of field studies and the preparation and completion of a researcher-made questionnaire. The questions examined in the present study were arranged on a Likert scale and a five-point scale (very low, low, medium, high and very high). The reliability of the research tool was also obtained using Cronbach's alpha coefficient for the components studied in the study, which was equal to 0.76. The validity of the research or the validity of the questionnaire was also obtained with face validity (using the opinions of specialists and experts) (Table 1). The statistical population of the present study is the heads of households in the villages in the Nagan district of Kiar County. The Cochran formula was used to determine the sample size, and 348 people were selected as the sample population from the 3147 people of the total population of the sample villages and by simple random sampling method. Then, using Phi or Kramers V correlation analysis, Chi-square, Friedman's comparison of means, and one-way analysis of variance, all data were measured and analyzed in the Spss software environment. Also, graphs were drawn using Excel and maps were drawn using GIS software. Kiar County is one of the counties of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, which is located in a mountainous area. This county is located in the southwest of the province and is bordered by Shahrekord County to the north, Lordegan County to the south, Borujen County to the east, and Ardel County to the west. 3. Results The results of the Phi test show that there is a significant relationship between tourism attractions and jobs related to that sector and the level of motivation for rural residents to stay, up to a confidence level of 99%. The results of the Friedman mean comparison also show a significant difference in explaining the capacities for the development of sports tourism. Also, the results of the one-way independent variance analysis show a significant difference at 99% in the income of the villages studied. In addition, most of the indicators examined using chi-square correlation analysis show a logical and significant relationship between sports tourism attractions and the development of rural areas.. 4. Discussion The results of the studies show that there is a logical and meaningful relationship between jobs related to the sports tourism sector and the motivation to stay in the sample villages, and usually those who do not have suitable jobs are more inclined to migrate. The results of this study show that the villages of Jowzistan, Madan, Dareh-e-Eshq, and Gol-e-Safid were in a common group and were at the lowest income level, but the villages of Gol-e-Safid, Dorak, and Doplan were in the highest income group, and the reason for this should be sought in the tourism capabilities and capacities of these villages and the creation of new jobs. Tourism can lead to the growth of complementary jobs, the production of handicrafts, local products, and other side economic activities. And appropriate information systems will play an effective role in this field, and ultimately, the prosperity of sports tourism in the studied villages can have a significant and significant impact on the physical changes and physical development of the studied villages. 5. Conclusion Sports tourism plays an important role in the economy of countries that have important mountains or mountain ranges. This type of tourism undoubtedly plays a very important role in the social and economic development of communities around the highlands and creates employment related to the sports tourism sector, increases turnover and earns more income, and consequently, sustainable livelihoods of local and rural communities. Given the importance that countries have attached to sports tourism in recent years, there is a greater need to develop sports tourism. Accordingly, paying more attention to this issue in order to achieve sustainable livelihoods and improve the quality of life of rural communities is inevitable. https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_733164.html Introduction In developing countries, women constitute a significant portion of rural populations and undertake various roles and responsibilities. However, they are often overlooked as a weaker segment of society, and more than half of them suffer from poverty, limited income opportunities, lack of healthcare, education, and other essential services. To enhance the role of rural women in the development of rural communities, their empowerment is essential. Women's empowerment refers to a process through which women gain high self-esteem, demonstrate confidence in speech and action, and develop the ability to face challenges and hardships. Empowered women are capable of analyzing and understanding various issues and utilize their capabilities to achieve their goals. By increasing and enhancing their skills across different domains, women can attain their desired objectives. When women become capable of performing tasks independently, gender-based discrimination is reduced, thereby creating the conditions necessary for empowerment. In the process of empowering women, agency and the structure of opportunities and resources play a pivotal role. Individual and collective assets and capabilities shape women’s agency. Agency is facilitated through access to capital. Capital refers to the resources that enable actors to benefit from social, economic, and political opportunities and become productive. These resources include both tangible and intangible assets such as education, wealth, employment, social relationships, and access to opportunities. These resources act as catalysts for women's empowerment. However, it is the conditions under which women access these resources that ultimately determine the extent of empowerment. Resources are distributed through the structure of opportunities, which includes both formal and informal contexts in which women operate—such as laws, regulations, institutions, and cultural frameworks. This distribution is often inequitable, and due to prevailing socio-political conditions, only limited resources are made available to women—or in some cases, they are denied access altogether. Therefore, there is a growing need for empowerment in rural communities, which requires a transformation in the conditions under which women can acquire resources. Empowerment is contingent upon such changes, and the interplay of various factors jointly creates different levels of empowerment. 2. Methodology This research is applied in terms of its objective and descriptive-analytical in terms of its method. The statistical population of the study consists of women aged 18 to over 65 years from three counties in the southern region of Isfahan Province, including Semirom, Shahreza, and Dehaghan. Out of the total rural population of this region (66,858 people), 31,785 were women. To determine a statistically reasonable sample size from this total population—specifically rural women in the southern region of Isfahan—Cochran's formula was used in conjunction with quota sampling (based on the number of women in each rural district). Data collection was conducted using a questionnaire distributed among 380 rural women. The face and content validity of the questionnaire were confirmed by subject matter experts and academic faculty members. The reliability of the questionnaire was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha, which yielded a reliability coefficient of 0.77. Data analysis was performed using SPSS software and included both descriptive statistics (frequencies and percentages) and inferential statistics (Friedman test, multivariate regression analysis, factor analysis, and path analysis). 3. Results The most significant barriers affecting the empowerment of rural women, in order of impact, include: Social barriers (e.g., lack of belief in women's abilities and capabilities to perform tasks), Security-health-educational barriers (e.g., lack of access to healthcare facilities, low levels of education among women, and absence of laws supporting women in society), Economic barriers (e.g., high interest rates on loans), Psychological-political-social barriers (e.g., lack of a sense of safety outside the home, limited access to educational opportunities), Financial barriers (e.g., insufficient income to start a business, limited access to land), Family-related barriers (e.g., low self-esteem and threats to personal dignity and honor), Ideological-educational barriers (e.g., lack of access to training classes and vocational skill development courses), Motivational barriers (lack of personal drive or incentive). The results of the path analysis revealed that, with the exception of political barriers, all independent variables also have indirect effects on the empowerment of rural women. Among all factors, socio-cultural barriers exert the greatest overall impact on women's empowerment, with a total effect coefficient of 0.591, while political barriers have the least impact, with a total effect coefficient of 0.164. Additionally, economic barriers (total effect = 0.503), infrastructural barriers (total effect = 0.443), and psychological barriers (total effect = 0.377) rank second through fourth in terms of their influence on the empowerment of rural women. 4. Discussion The results of data analysis indicate that the most significant barriers to rural women’s empowerment are as follows: In the economic dimension, the lack of oversight in the allocation and usage of credit facilities and loans, with an average influence of 6.55%; In the psychological dimension, the lack of motivation to carry out tasks and follow through with activities, with an average of 3.65%; In the political dimension, the absence of a sense of security in public spaces (e.g., streets), with an average of 2.29%; In the social dimension, the low level of education hindering participation in various village activities, with an average of 7.10%; In the infrastructural dimension, the lack of access to healthcare facilities, with an average of 2.05%. Therefore, identifying these barriers and proposing strategies to eliminate them can significantly contribute to empowering rural women. 5. Conclusion Given the limited knowledge of women in the fields of advertising and marketing, organizing training courses and workshops in marketing and e-commerce can significantly enhance their knowledge, attract customers, and increase the sales of their products. Training female instructors and extension workers is essential for addressing familial and cultural biases that hinder women's participation in educational programs, particularly in regions where traditional beliefs are prevalent. This approach will lead to improved educational opportunities for women and the development of their skills. Furthermore, fostering risk-taking attitudes and establishing women’s associations are recommended strategies to promote employment in the agricultural and handicraft sectors, especially considering women's limited access to banking and credit facilities. https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_733375.html 1. Introduction One of the most important impacts of climate change is the change in precipitation and temperature patterns, which directly affects the snow cover and reserves of mountainous areas and water flows. Mountain snow cover is not only known as a sensitive indicator of climate change, but also plays a vital role in providing freshwater, regulating river flows, and maintaining mountain ecosystems. In addition to providing freshwater, the Sabalan Mountain plays an important role in maintaining biodiversity and mountain ecosystems. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the trend and temporal-spatial changes in the snow cover of the Sabalan Mountain in the past 25 years. 2. Methodology In this study, the snow cover of the Sabalan and its changes in the 25-year period (2000-2024) from March 2000 to December 2024 were investigated using the sixth version of MOD10ACM obtained from MODIS sensor images of the Terra satellite. To achieve the research goals, first, the frequency of the percentage of snow cover on an annual scale from March 2000 to December 2024 was extracted, then the frequency of this cover for each of the months of January to June and November and December in the years under study was categorized into 7 classes (no snow cover, 1-10%, 10-30%, 30-50%, 50-70%, 70-90% and 90-100%). Then, the trend of changes in each of the classes of snow cover percentage in months (monthly snow cover time series) was evaluated using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s Slope statistical methods. Also, monthly average snow cover maps were drawn during the study period and monthly difference maps were drawn. 3. Results An examination of the percentage of snow cover classes of the total area of the Sabalan Mountain in 8 months over 25 years (2000-2024) shows a significant decrease in complete snow cover (class 90-100%) in the cold months of the year (January and December) and accelerated snow melting in the warm months (April to June). In January, the average complete snow cover decreased by 8.5%, while the intermediate classes (30-70%) expanded. In December, 16.8% decrease in complete snow cover and an increase in areas with little snow were observed. Spring months such as April and May show a sharp decrease in complete snow cover and an increase in areas without snow, so that in June, complete snow cover has reached almost the minimum possible. November also showed a significant decrease in complete snow cover and a delay in the start of the snow cover season. These changes are probably due to increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and early snowmelt, which have hydrological consequences such as changes in the timing and amount of spring runoff and reduced water storage. Trending of snow cover changes in the Sabalan using the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s Slope showed that snow cover changes in the Sabalan Mountains follow a complex seasonal pattern, and the snow cover trend in the region is decreasing in autumn and increasing in winter, which can be attributed to the shortening of the snowfall period in this region. The results of the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s Slope indicate that in the 50-70% snow cover class, November shows a significant decreasing trend, while in December it increases, and in the 70-90% class, a significant increase in snow cover was observed in January. Although the amount of this increase is small, the presence of a positive slope and its statistical confirmation (Z= 2.41) indicate that the trend of snow changes in this region requires an investigation of precipitation and temperature patterns in the region. Differential snow cover maps of the Sabalan region during the period 2000-2024 showed that the greatest decrease in snow cover occurred in the months of December, January, and February, which can be interpreted as an indicator of winter warming and reduced snowfall. In contrast, the increase in snow cover in March and to some extent June is significant, indicating a change in the timing of snow melt or a shift in the precipitation phase towards later periods of the year. 4. Discussion The existence of a decreasing trend in snow cover levels in the Sabalan Mountains is consistent with studies by other researchers, including Barnett et al. (2005); Immerzeel et al. (2010); Sorg et al. (2012); Marty et al. (2013); Chen et al. (2016); Huss et al. (2017); Wang et al. (2021); Faraji et al. (1402), who have studied changes in snow cover in mountainous areas and have pointed out the reduction in the area of snow cover in the mountains they studied. The reduction in snow cover in the Sabalan has serious consequences for the water resources of the region, because the melting of snow in this mountain is the main source of water for the rivers and aquifers of the region. These changes also negatively affect mountain ecosystems, agriculture and local communities. Similar studies in other mountainous areas of the world have also shown that climate change is increasingly affecting snow cover (IPCC, 2021). This study shows that climate change is greatly affecting mountainous areas, and this finding is consistent with the results of the research of Barnett et al. (2005); Immerzeel et al. (2010); Sorg et al. (2012); Marty et al. (2013); Pepin et al. (2015); Chen et al. (2016); Huss et al. (2017); López-Moreno et al. (2021); Wang et al. (2021); Liu et al. (2021); Zhang et al. (2021) and Faraji et al. (1402). 5. Conclusion To address these challenges, there is a need to develop sustainable management strategies and policies to adapt to climate change and reduce its impacts. In this regard, several suggestions are presented: investigating the relationship between snow cover changes and climate parameters and conducting a long-term trend analysis of regional climate variables using time series data, more detailed studies on the impact of these changes on regional water resources, studying the relationship of this variable with climate indicators such as NAO, ENSO and AO to explain the mechanisms of changes observed in the region. https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_733377.html Situated within the geodynamically active Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt, Lorestan Province in Iran hosts a remarkable diversity of geomorphosites, presenting significant potential for geotourism. This study employs an innovative artificial intelligence approach to model the relationship between the multidimensional ASPECTS assessment model—evaluating intrinsic, functional, effectiveness, and use values—and the morphological coding of these sites. Data from 47 selected geomorphosites were analyzed using the C&R Tree decision-making algorithm in SPSS Modeler. Results indicate that the intrinsic dimension is the most influential predictor of a site's morphological classification. Sites with active and rare point features scored highest in intrinsic and functional values, whereas those shaped by Quaternary alluvial processes demonstrated greater resilience and higher conservation potential. The research underscores the necessity for developing integrated management strategies tailored to the morphological and evaluative characteristics of each site to ensure the sustainable development of geotourism in Lorestan. 2. Methodology This research employed a descriptive-analytical approach to model the relationship between the dimensions of the ASPECTS assessment model (intrinsic, functional, effectiveness, use) and the morphological coding of geomorphosites in Lorestan Province, Iran. Data were collected through structured questionnaires and systematic field observations from a purposive sample of 47 selected geomorphosites, chosen based on criteria of representativeness and rarity. The ASPECTS model was operationalized to evaluate each site across its core dimensions, translating qualitative attributes into quantifiable scores. Morphological coding classified sites based on form, dominant process, and scale, enabling systematic comparison. The analysis was conducted using the C&R Tree decision tree algorithm within SPSS Modeler software, selected for its capability to handle both qualitative and quantitative data and identify complex, non-linear relationships. Prior to modeling, data underwent preprocessing, including cleaning, handling of missing values, and partitioning into training (80%) and testing (20%) subsets to ensure model robustness and generalizability. The model's performance was validated based on its accuracy and ensemble learning score. This artificial intelligence-driven methodology provided a powerful, interpretable framework for discerning key predictive variables and formulating data-informed management strategies tailored to specific morphological classes. 3. Results This study demonstrates a significant and quantifiable relationship between the morphological characteristics of geomorphosites in Lorestan Province and their multidimensional valuation as per the ASPECTS model. The finding that the intrinsic dimension exerts the strongest influence (with a significance coefficient of 0.41) on a site's morphological code is pivotal. It underscores that inherent values—such as a site’s scientific representativeness, uniqueness, and geomorphological integrity—are the primary determinants of its fundamental classification. This aligns with the core principles of geoheritage assessment, which posit that inherent characteristics form the bedrock for any subsequent evaluation of functional or protective potential. Furthermore, the research delineates a clear functional dichotomy based on morphological coding. Sites classified as active and rare point features, such as certain waterfalls or caves, consistently achieved higher scores in both intrinsic and functional dimensions. Their distinctiveness and dynamism render them exceptionally valuable for scientific interpretation and geotourism appeal. Conversely, landforms originating from Quaternary alluvial processes, while often less distinctive intrinsically, demonstrated greater resilience and higher conservation scores. This inverse relationship highlights a critical management trade-off: sites of highest intrinsic value are often the most vulnerable, necessitating stringent protective measures and controlled visitation. The application of an artificial intelligence algorithm (C&R Tree) proved instrumental in deciphering these complex, non-linear relationships between the ASPECTS model's dimensions. This methodological innovation moves beyond traditional statistical analysis, offering a powerful predictive tool for site prioritization. By accurately modeling how a site’s physical form influences its potential use and susceptibility to damage, the AI-driven approach facilitates evidence-based decision-making. Consequently, this research provides a robust scientific foundation for developing differentiated management strategies. It advocates for a shift from generic planning to tailored interventions, where conservation protocols and tourism development plans are meticulously aligned with the specific morphological code and assessed potential of each geomorphosite. This ensures that the profound geoheritage of Lorestan can be leveraged for sustainable development while preserving its scientific and aesthetic value for future generations. 5. Conclusion Based on the integration of the ASPECTS evaluation model and artificial intelligence through decision tree analysis, this study demonstrates that the intrinsic dimension—encompassing scientific representativeness, rarity, and geomorphological integrity—is the most influential factor (with a significance coefficient of 0/41) in determining the morphological coding of geomorphosites in Lorestan Province. Sites characterized by active and rare point features exhibit higher intrinsic and functional values, whereas those formed by Quaternary alluvial processes show greater resilience and higher conservation potential due to lower sensitivity. These findings underscore the necessity of developing tailored management strategies that align conservation efforts with the specific morphological and evaluative attributes of each site. The application of AI not only enhances the precision of geosite assessment but also supports sustainable geotourism planning by enabling data-driven prioritization. This approach offers a scalable framework for managing geoheritage in diverse mountainous regions, balancing preservation with responsible tourism development . https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_734234.html 1. Introduction Floods, as one of the most devastating hydrometeorological hazards, pose significant threats to sustainable development worldwide. They not only lead to extensive human casualties but also cause massive economic losses by destroying agricultural lands, housing, infrastructure, and public assets. The increasing frequency and intensity of floods, fueled by climate change and unplanned human activities such as deforestation and urban expansion, have exacerbated global vulnerability. Although improvements in early warning systems have stabilized flood-related fatalities, economic damages continue to rise, reflecting gaps in disaster-conscious urban planning. Consequently, flood management requires integrated strategies combining structural solutions—like dams and drainage systems—with nonstructural measures such as land-use planning, insurance, public education, and institutional coordination. Integrated Flood Management (IFM), introduced two decades ago, promotes multi-sectoral coordination and capacity development for reducing flood risks while supporting sustainable development. Iran, particularly, faces frequent and destructive floods that significantly affect its economy and urban life. Among Iranian cities, Poldokhtar, located in Lorestan Province and traversed by the Kashkan River, stands out as highly vulnerable due to its geographical and topographical characteristics. Urban vulnerability in such flood-prone cities is intensified by unplanned urban expansion, noncompliance with construction standards, and limited institutional coordination. In this context, futures studies—which analyze possible, probable, and preferable future scenarios—provide a valuable framework for proactive urban management. By applying foresight, municipalities can adopt long-term strategies to mitigate risk and strengthen resilience. Given this context, the present study addresses the central research question: What are the key driving forces influencing the performance of urban management in addressing flood vulnerability in Poldokhtar over the next decade? The study’s objective is to identify and analyze the strategic drivers that will determine urban resilience to floods in Poldokhtar by the horizon year 1414 (2035), thereby guiding sustainable policy-making and disaster risk reduction. 2. Methodology This applied, descriptive–analytical research adopts a futures studies framework to identify the most influential drivers shaping urban flood management. Data collection was carried out through documentary and field methods, supported by expert questionnaires. The analysis covered the period 1398–1402 (2019-2023). Given the expert-oriented nature of scenario planning, the study relied on a purposive sample of 25 specialists, including mayors, city council members, provincial officials, engineers, and urban planners from key institutions such as the Lorestan Regional Water Company and the Natural Resources Department. Their expertise ensured the validity and reliability of the findings. Data analysis employed the Delphi method and the MICMAC (Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification) technique to identify and classify the variables influencing urban flood management. Experts evaluated the mutual relationships among variables using a Likert scale (0–3), where 0 represented no influence and 3 indicated strong influence. The MICMAC matrix facilitated the identification of factors with high influence and low dependence, which were deemed key drivers. This systematic process provided both quantitative and qualitative insights into the structure of relationships among variables influencing flood vulnerability management in Poldokhtar. 3. Results The expert panel’s input resulted in a 92.85% matrix filling rate, demonstrating strong interconnectivity among the identified factors. The MICMAC analysis revealed four primary drivers exhibiting high influence and low dependence, thereby exerting the greatest impact on the city’s flood management system: 1.Establishment of a standardized crisis management system, including regulations, funding mechanisms, and comprehensive plans for flood response. 2.Implementation of effective management across pre-, during-, and post-flood phases, ensuring coordinated and timely responses. 3.Creation of a specialized flood management and interagency coordination organization to unify efforts among institutions and the public. 4.Adoption of modern global knowledge and technology to enhance the scientific and technical basis of flood management. These factors were identified as the most strategic levers for improving the performance of urban management. In contrast, variables such as public education, insurance expansion, vegetation control, and hazard map updates were found to have higher dependency and thus secondary influence. The indirect influence analysis reaffirmed the dominance of managerial and organizational drivers, underlining that developing institutional capacity and a coherent management framework offers the most sustainable route toward urban resilience in Poldokhtar. 4. Discussion Floods in Poldokhtar have repeatedly demonstrated the devastating consequences of insufficient preparedness and fragmented management. Given the city’s exposure—stemming from the Kashkan River, its basin morphology, and the concentration of settlements in flood-prone zones—strengthening urban management is paramount. The study’s use of futures thinking and MICMAC structural analysis revealed that managerial reform and institutional coordination are the most critical factors for shaping an adaptive and resilient urban system. The four identified drivers serve as strategic pillars for improving flood management performance: 1. Standardized Crisis Management System: Establishing unified legal, institutional, and operational frameworks is essential for ensuring consistent and rapid decision-making during flood emergencies. Such systems must define roles, financing mechanisms, and cross-sectoral responsibilities, promoting an integrated approach across governmental and municipal levels. 2. Phased Flood Management (Before–During–After): Adopting a temporal management model enhances preparedness (through risk mapping and early warning), enables efficient crisis response (through real-time coordination), and supports rapid recovery and reconstruction post-flooding. 3. Institutional and Public Coordination: Flood management cannot rely solely on municipal bodies. Effective outcomes depend on collaboration among governmental agencies, NGOs, and citizens. Establishing a dedicated Flood Management Organization could facilitate data sharing, resource mobilization, and public participation. 4. Integration of Global Knowledge and Technology: Drawing on international experiences, advanced hydrological modeling, and remote sensing tools can modernize Iran’s flood management practices. Continuous training and exchange programs would also enhance local expertise. The analysis underscores that institutional reform and foresight are vital for building resilience. The findings align with global trends emphasizing proactive governance, interagency coordination, and knowledge-based urban planning (Evers, 2006; Khajenenejad et al., 2024). By adopting these strategies, Poldokhtar can shift from reactive disaster response to proactive risk mitigation. https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_734235.html 1. Introduction Urban dysfunctional areas, as epicenters of crisis, have created numerous economic, social, and physical challenges for developing cities. Khorramabad, as a significant center in western Iran, faces over 263 hectares of dysfunctional fabrics suffering from poor livability indicators. In recent decades, the urban regeneration paradigm has shifted from purely physical approaches to sustainable regeneration focusing on economic components. Based on the Asset-Based Community Development (ABCD) theory, household economic stability and local employment opportunities are the primary foundations for enhancing quality of life and livability. This study aims to analyze the impacts of sustainable economic-driven regeneration on enhancing livability indicators in Khorramabad's dysfunctional areas, considering institutional sustainability and governance as a mediating variable. 2. Methodology This research is descriptive-analytical in nature and applied in purpose. The statistical population included two groups: experts (30 individuals) and residents of Khorramabad's dysfunctional fabrics. Using Cochran's formula, the sample size for citizens was determined to be 200, selected through stratified random sampling. The data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire, validated through the Content Validity Ratio (CVR > 0.70) and reliability confirmed by Cronbach's alpha (> 0.80). For data analysis, the Fuzzy DEMATEL technique was first employed to identify causal relationships among variables. Subsequently, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) using Smart-PLS 3 software was applied for hypothesis testing and final model fitting. 3. Results Fuzzy DEMATEL analysis revealed that among economic regeneration indicators, "employment opportunities and local businesses" have the highest impact on other variables. In the SEM section, all factor loadings were significant at a 95% confidence level. Findings showed that economic regeneration has a direct and significant effect on urban livability (path coefficient = 0.68). Furthermore, managerial sustainability, with a factor loading of 0.801, was identified as a strong mediating variable strengthening the link between economic interventions and livability outcomes. Among livability indicators, "residential satisfaction" and "environmental quality" showed the highest correlation with improved household economic status. 4. Discussion The findings of this study emphasize that in middle-order Iranian cities like Khorramabad, livability is a result of economic empowerment rather than physical aesthetics. These results align with international researchers such as Chen (2024) and Wang (2023), who highlight the pivotal role of micro-economics in neighborhood sustainability. The primary distinction of this research lies in highlighting the role of "managerial sustainability," demonstrating that even with financial resource injection, regeneration will not lead to tangible livability results without transparent governance and resident trust. The prioritization of indicators showed that access to urban services leads to satisfaction only when accompanied by improved purchasing power and local capital sustainability. 5. Conclusion Ultimately, it can be concluded that the economic regeneration model in Khorramabad must move from a "project-oriented" to an "institution-oriented" and "human-centered" approach. Enhancing livability in dysfunctional fabrics requires integrating employment policies with physical improvement plans. Urban policymakers should focus on creating tax incentives for small local businesses and strengthening intermediary institutions to encourage public participation. This study suggests that the operational model of regeneration in similar cities should consider managerial sustainability as a prerequisite for any economic intervention. 1. Introduction Urban dysfunctional areas, as epicenters of crisis, have created numerous economic, social, and physical challenges for developing cities. Khorramabad, as a significant center in western Iran, faces over 263 hectares of dysfunctional fabrics suffering from poor livability indicators. In recent decades, the urban regeneration paradigm has shifted from purely physical approaches to sustainable regeneration focusing on economic components. Based on the Asset-Based Community Development (ABCD) theory, household economic stability and local employment opportunities are the primary foundations for enhancing quality of life and livability. This study aims to analyze the impacts of sustainable economic-driven regeneration on enhancing livability indicators in Khorramabad's dysfunctional areas, considering institutional sustainability and governance as a mediating variable. 2. Methodology This research is descriptive-analytical in nature and applied in purpose. The statistical population included two groups: experts (30 individuals) and residents of Khorramabad's dysfunctional fabrics. Using Cochran's formula, the sample size for citizens was determined to be 200, selected through stratified random sampling. The data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire, validated through the Content Validity Ratio (CVR > 0.70) and reliability confirmed by Cronbach's alpha (> 0.80). For data analysis, the Fuzzy DEMATEL technique was first employed to identify causal relationships among variables. Subsequently, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) using Smart-PLS 3 software was applied for hypothesis testing and final model fitting. 3. Results Fuzzy DEMATEL analysis revealed that among economic regeneration indicators, "employment opportunities and local businesses" have the highest impact on other variables. In the SEM section, all factor loadings were significant at a 95% confidence level. Findings showed that economic regeneration has a direct and significant effect on urban livability (path coefficient = 0.68). Furthermore, managerial sustainability, with a factor loading of 0.801, was identified as a strong mediating variable strengthening the link between economic interventions and livability outcomes. Among livability indicators, "residential satisfaction" and "environmental quality" showed the highest correlation with improved household economic status. 4. Discussion The findings of this study emphasize that in middle-order Iranian cities like Khorramabad, livability is a result of economic empowerment rather than physical aesthetics. These results align with international researchers such as Chen (2024) and Wang (2023), who highlight the pivotal role of micro-economics in neighborhood sustainability. The primary distinction of this research lies in highlighting the role of "managerial sustainability," demonstrating that even with financial resource injection, regeneration will not lead to tangible livability results without transparent governance and resident trust. The prioritization of indicators showed that access to urban services leads to satisfaction only when accompanied by improved purchasing power and local capital sustainability. 5. Conclusion Ultimately, it can be concluded that the economic regeneration model in Khorramabad must move from a "project-oriented" to an "institution-oriented" and "human-centered" approach. Enhancing livability in dysfunctional fabrics requires integrating employment policies with physical improvement plans. Urban policymakers should focus on creating tax incentives for small local businesses and strengthening intermediary institutions to encourage public participation. This study suggests that the operational model of regeneration in https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_734239.html Extended Abstract Introduction Recent geomorphological studies utilize morphometric analyses as an efficient method for identifying geological structures and tectonic patterns. The study and identification of areas with tectonic activity is of particular importance, because these areas reflect the movements of the youngest periods, especially the Quaternary period and especially the Holocene and the present. Indeed, tectonic geomorphology analyzes the relationship between tectonic forces and geomorphic processes affecting the formation of landforms and geomorphological landscapes in areas with active deformation. Therefore, topographic analyses are considered an effective tool for measuring landscape forms, because the impact of tectonic activities on the topography of the earth is widely evident. This study investigates the relative tectonic activity in the Ahoran-Lashar region of the Makran Mountain Belt (MMB), southern Sistan and Baluchestan province. Materials and Methods Eight geomorphic indices (SMF, VF, AF, FMF, EU, FD, BS, T) were calculated and integrated into the Relative Tectonic Activity Index (IAT) introduced by El Hamdouni et al. (2008). In addition, topographic and geological maps, a 12.5-meter DEM, and Landsat and Sentinel satellite imagery were integrated within a GIS environment and validated with field evidence. Results and Discussion The SMF index exhibits a relatively uniform spectrum, ranging from 0.91 to 1.20. The highest value (Smf = 1.20) occurs in front 4 in the south, while the lowest (Smf = 0.91) is in front 5 in the west. The mean index value of 1.07 (Table 2) indicates very high to high tectonic activity, classifying the area as class 1 activity. Valley 23 (Vf=0.05), located within the Kajou fault, exhibited the lowest value, indicating high activity. Conversely, valley 28's value of 3.81 was the highest, suggesting relative inactivity (Table 3). The average index value of 0.42 classifies the studied region as class 1 activity (very high). The values of the Fmf index varied between 118.41 (related to front number 14) and 356 (related to front number 2). Also, the average of this index in the studied area was found to be 236.03 (Table 4). The high percentage of these levels indicates the high tectonic activity in this area of the Makran mountain belt. In general, the results of the Fd index calculations show low numerical values and a relatively uniform spectrum with a low range of variability. In other words, the lowest and highest calculated values were about 0.18 for front number 7 and 0.41 for front number 2, respectively. Also, the total average for the region was obtained as 0.29 (Table 5). The calculated values for the Eu index show a spectrum with a moderate variability range; its values ranged from 0.41 to 0.72, and its total average in the region was also measured to be 0.56 (Table 6). These values indicate a relatively moderate to high percentage of uncut sections of the mountain fronts of the study area, which in most cases are externally manifested as continuous escarpments and sometimes as fault and straight cliffs (Figure 7). The highest Af index was measured in basin number 16 (Af=9.67) in the northern part of the region and the lowest in basin number 18 (Af=3.26) in the southern part of the region (Table 7). The results show that the watersheds of the region are divided into three classes based on the degree of tilt (Figure 5 and Figure 8). In general, the results of the Bs index show that the studied basins are in categories 2 and 3 of tectonic activity. More precisely, the lowest and highest values calculated for this index belong to basin number 18 with a numerical value of 1.23 and basin number 1 with a numerical value of 2.29, respectively, which indicates relatively low to moderate tectonic activity (Table 8). Analyses conducted using these indices provided a very clear view of the status of tectonic activities in the region. In general, the results obtained show that the highest level of activity is in the southwestern, southeastern, northwestern, and finally northeastern parts of the region, respectively. Also, the calculated indices suggest moderate to high tectonic activity in the region. Integrating measured indices values into the IAT unit index yielded a value of 1.7, classifying the study area as class 2, indicating high tectonic activity. Finally, the findings obtained from the indices were matched and verified with the existing geomorphological evidence in the region, such as linear and straight mountain fronts, deep and V-shaped valleys, greater elongation and tilting of basins, a high proportion of triangular facets, a low percentage dissected mountain fronts and a high percentage undissected escarpments. Conclusion This study assesses the relative tectonic activity of the Ahoran-Lashar region situated in the Makran mountain belt using geomorphic indicators. Mountain front sinuosity, triangular facets, stream displacement, V-shaped valleys, and the absence of foothills suggest active tectonics in the region. These indices offer a valuable relative classification for preliminary tectonic assessments. Geomorphic indices and field evidence indicate that the study area is tectonically active. Specifically, the IAT index classified the area as class two with high tectonic status, suggesting ongoing neotectonic activity consistent with other indices and field observations in the region. https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_734537.html 1. Introduction The rapid and unplanned growth of metropolises in recent decades has been one of the most important factors in the destruction of vegetation cover and land use change. The metropolis of Mashhad, as the world's second most important religious metropolis and the main development hub in eastern Iran, has experienced accelerated physical and population growth in recent decades. Although this rapid development has aimed to address demographic and economic needs, the lack of integrated planning has led to extensive environmental consequences, with one of the most prominent and concerning being the destruction of vegetation cover and the reduction of green spaces. The main issue of this research is to examine the trend and extent of this destruction and its direct connection with the city's physical expansion. Although governance challenges in urban environmental management (such as the dispersion of decision-making institutions, weak stakeholder participation, and the absence of a continuous monitoring system) are generally recognized, there is a lack of precise quantitative and spatial evidence regarding the impact of this development on the objective destruction of vegetation cover at the scale of Mashhad metropolis. The central question is: To what extent and in what manner has the physical expansion of Mashhad metropolis during the period [1990-2024] caused the destruction of vegetation cover and the change of green land uses? This research specifically aims to utilize Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies to provide a quantitative and spatial picture of these changes, identify the areas that have experienced the most destruction, and accurately analyze the correlation between urban growth and the loss of vegetation cover. Therefore, by addressing this knowledge gap, the present study not only provides a precise perspective on one of the most serious consequences of urban development in Mashhad but also supplies the necessary baseline data and spatial analyses for integrated planning and management, environmental protection, and moving towards sustainable development in this vital metropolis. 2. Methodology This research, in terms of purpose, is classified as applied research with a descriptive-analytical nature, and methodologically, falls into the category of quantitative research. For data analysis, ENVI and ArcGIS software along with FLAASH, NDVI, NDBI algorithms and the combined ACO-SVM model were used for preprocessing, index extraction, and image classification. 3. Results The results of the study indicate that over a 34-year period, the residential areas of Mashhad increased by 138% to 18,862 hectares, while rangelands and barren lands decreased by 47% to 9,847 hectares. Rainfed and irrigated agricultural lands also decreased by 43% and 36% respectively. These changes reflect an unsustainable development pattern and pose a serious threat to food security and environmental resilience. The validation with a Kappa coefficient of 0.91 confirms the accuracy of the research methodology. 4. Discussion The analysis of land use changes in the Mashhad metropolis over a 34-year period (1990-2024) presents an alarming picture of unsustainable development patterns and their environmental consequences. According to the findings of this research, residential areas have experienced a remarkable 138% growth, expanding from 7,929 hectares to 18,862 hectares. This rapid urban expansion has imposed heavy costs on the region's environment and natural resources, resulting in a catastrophic decline in vegetation cover and natural areas. Rangelands and barren lands have decreased by 47%, from 18,629 hectares to 9,847 hectares. This has not only weakened the region's ecosystem resilience against climate change but has also seriously compromised its natural regenerative capacity. Furthermore, the agricultural sector, as one of the main pillars of the region's food security and economy, has suffered significant damage. Rainfed agricultural lands have decreased by 43% to 1,671 hectares, while irrigated farmlands and orchards have been reduced by 36% to 1,588 hectares. This declining trend has not only led to adverse economic and social consequences but also indicates that the region's productive and ecological capacities have been overlooked in the urban development process. 5. Conclusion The results of this study clearly demonstrate that the urban development pattern in the Mashhad metropolis over the past three decades has been based on the consumption of natural resources and the disregard for environmental considerations. This unsustainable trend has posed serious challenges to the long-term sustainability of the city and makes the need to revise urban development policies more evident than ever. The results of this study clearly demonstrate that the urban development pattern in the Mashhad metropolis over the past three decades has been based on the consumption of natural resources and the disregard for environmental considerations. This unsustainable trend has posed serious challenges to the long-term sustainability of the city and makes the need to revise urban development policies more evident than ever. Acknowledgments This research did not receive any specific grant. From funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.Acknowledgments This research did not receive any specific grant. From funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.Acknowledgments https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_735033.html 1. Introduction Geotourism in mountainous areas, particularly in rural contexts, as an emerging form of sustainable tourism, plays a significant role in local economic development, the conservation of geological and cultural heritage, and enhancing interactions between tourists and local communities (Dowling & Newsome, 2017; Williams et al., 2024; Muslim et al., 2022). Destination attractiveness in this type of tourism is influenced by multiple factors, including mental image, services, facilities, and cultural and natural experiences, and destination brand personality serves as a key marketing tool that can shape tourists’ perceptions, satisfaction, and loyalty (Ekinci & Hosany, 2006; Pérez-Tapia et al., 2025; Shi et al., 2022; Tiago et al., 2021; Pereira et al., 2018; Roy, 2024). Despite numerous studies on branding and destination attractiveness in urban destinations and geoparks, few studies have directly examined the impact of destination brand personality dimensions on the multidimensional attractiveness of rural–mountainous geotourism destinations (Aguilar et al., 2014; Hamdy et al., 2024; Tiago et al., 2021; Kchikach et al., 2023; Tizzoni, 2015; Shafiei et al., 2017; Pereira et al., 2015). Accordingly, the present study, focusing on Kandovan Village—a prominent example of mountainous geotourism in Iran with unique rock-cut architecture and geological heritage (Hajirasouli et al., 2021; Rezapouraghdam et al., 2020), examines the impact of destination brand personality dimensions on perceived attractiveness of geotourism destinations and provides practical recommendations to enhance tourists’ experiences and promote sustainable destination development (Giampiccoli & Azgomi, 2023). 2. Methodology This study investigates the relationship between destination brand personality and the attractiveness of geotourism destinations in mountainous areas, focusing on Kandovan Village. Using a quantitative, cross-sectional design and PLS-SEM, data were collected from 337 tourists via structured questionnaires. Destination brand personality (excitement and authenticity) serves as the independent variable, destination attractiveness (services, facilities, and visit experiences) as the dependent variable, and gender as a moderating variable. Kandovan, located at the foot of Mount Sahand in East Azerbaijan, features unique volcanic “Karan” formations and rock-cut architecture, representing a significant integration of natural and cultural heritage. As a destination in the development stage of Butler’s tourism life cycle, coordinated strategies are needed to ensure sustainable tourism growth while preserving the village’s authenticity. 3. Results The descriptive analysis indicated that the sample comprised 30.35% men and 69.64% women, with the majority aged 31–50 years (37%) and 67% married. Most respondents (64.85%) had visited Kandovan five times or more. Inferential analysis using PLS-SEM confirmed the reliability and validity of the measurement model, with all factor loadings above 0.5, Cronbach’s alpha and composite reliability exceeding 0.7, and AVE values above 0.4, while discriminant validity was supported through Fornell-Larcker criteria. Structural model evaluation demonstrated significant positive effects of destination brand personality dimensions—excitement and authenticity—on both service/facility attractiveness and visit experience attractiveness (β ranging from 0.204 to 0.401, p < 0.01). The model explained a moderate portion of variance in dependent variables (R² ≈ 0.31) and showed strong predictive relevance (Q² > 0.30), with an overall GOF of 0.451 indicating a good fit. Moderation analysis revealed that gender did not significantly influence the relationships between brand personality dimensions and destination attractiveness. 4. Discussion The findings of this study indicate that the dimensions of destination brand personality, namely excitement and sincerity, have a significant positive impact on the attractiveness of geotourism destinations in Kandovan village. The excitement dimension, by highlighting dynamism, boldness, and diverse mountain-geotourism activities, creates an engaging and stimulating experience for tourists, significantly enhancing their perception of the destination’s services, facilities, and visual attractions. On the other hand, the sincerity dimension, emphasizing honesty, a sustainable and nature-aligned environment, preservation of cultural and natural attractions, and provision of traditional lodging experiences, enhances the quality of the tourism experience across visual, environmental, and cultural aspects, allowing tourists to have an authentic and profound interaction with nature and local culture. The results also show that gender does not play a significant moderating role in the relationship between brand personality dimensions and destination attractiveness, indicating that the tourism experience is uniform and inclusive in this natural and mountainous destination. These findings align with previous studies on mountainous and geotourism destinations and underscore the importance of developing brand personality dimensions, offering stimulating activities, and preserving authenticity and environmental sustainability to enhance tourist experiences and strengthen the destination brand. 5. Conclusion Based on the study’s results, enhancing the attractiveness and tourism experience in mountainous geotourism destinations like Kandovan requires a focus on strengthening the destination brand personality dimensions of excitement and sincerity. Excitement contributes to creating an engaging and stimulating experience, while sincerity enhances the quality of the experience in visual, environmental, and cultural dimensions. The uniformity of the tourism experience across genders highlights the importance of designing inclusive experiences tailored to the environmental and cultural characteristics of the destination. Therefore, developing exciting geotourism activities, preserving authenticity and natural environments, and providing high-quality services and facilities can significantly enhance tourist satisfaction, loyalty, and positive long-term behaviors, serving as a foundation for sustainable planning and marketing in mountainous geotourism destinations. https://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article_735034.html Urbanization in the twenty-first century has emerged as a defining trend, intensifying pressures on natural resources and the urban environment as population growth continues. While cities provide economic opportunities and cultural diversity, their rapid expansion has led to habitat degradation, biodiversity loss, and the exacerbation of environmental issues such as air and water pollution, urban heat islands, and the decline of per capita green space—all of which directly affect citizens’ quality of life. In this context, green infrastructure has been recognized as an efficient, nature-based approach that enhances water infiltration, reduces surface runoff, improves air quality, protects habitats, and regulates microclimates, thereby playing a critical role in strengthening urban resilience and environmental efficiency. Compared with conventional gray infrastructure, green infrastructure is more cost-effective, multifunctional, and environmentally compatible, and it has been widely promoted within the framework of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, barriers such as limited financial resources, land scarcity, and inadequate public investment constrain its full potential. The concept of environmental efficiency, an advanced form of eco-efficiency, emphasizes minimizing ecological costs and impacts while maximizing benefits, particularly at large-scale urban planning levels. Tehran, as a megacity, faces challenges such as rapid population growth, unbalanced development, air pollution, urban heat islands, and unequal access to green spaces, which collectively reduce soil permeability, increase runoff, and diminish environmental efficiency. Accordingly, futures studies of green infrastructure and the enhancement of its key indicators in Tehran represent a strategic necessity that can mitigate environmental crises, promote spatial justice, and guide the city toward sustainable development. The present study, through a systematic and structural meta-analysis approach, seeks to provide an evidence-based framework for urban policy and planning aimed at improving environmental efficiency through the development of green infrastructure. This research adopts a systematic review and path analysis approach. It is applied in purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature. First, a systematic literature search was conducted on June 30, 2024, using the Web of Science database and following the PRISMA framework. Keywords included terms such as green infrastructure, open green space, nature-based solutions, and environmental efficiency. Initially, 1326 articles were identified, covering the period 1992–2024. After preliminary screening, 1180 peer-reviewed articles remained, from which those unrelated to green infrastructure planning or implementation were excluded, reducing the number to 457. An additional 30 were removed for irrelevance to the research question, resulting in a final dataset of 427 articles: 304 addressing green infrastructure and environmental efficiency, 114 addressing the link with SDGs, and only 7 simultaneously covering all three dimensions. Bibliometric analysis of these studies was conducted using VOSviewer. In the second phase, the study focused on futures studies regarding the role of the Internet of Things (IoT) in urban water systems. A total of 36 related keywords were identified and refined through expert validation into 18 key indicators. The statistical population included university academics and researchers, urban managers and policymakers, and technical experts, from which a snowball sample of 60 participants was selected. A semi-structured questionnaire was distributed, and data were analyzed using MICMAC software. Finally, scenarios were developed using the Scenario Wizard tool. Accelerating urbanization in the twenty-first century, combined with intensifying environmental pressures, has highlighted green infrastructure as a key approach to sustainable urban management. A systematic review of studies from 1992 to 2024 reveals a steady growth in the field, evolving from limited evaluations in earlier decades to broader, multidimensional research in recent years. During the 1990s and early 2000s, the focus was primarily on the economic valuation and role of urban green spaces; however, since 2016, coinciding with the UN’s SDG agenda, themes such as urban resilience, climate change, cost-benefit analysis, ecosystem services, air pollution, and water management have become central. Co-occurrence analysis identified four main clusters: environmental efficiency and air pollution, stormwater management and life cycle assessment, urban resilience and public health, and nature-based solutions related to water quality and biodiversity. The benefits of green infrastructure were classified into four categories—regulating, supporting, cultural, and provisioning services—spanning a wide range of functions from reducing urban heat islands and improving air quality to enhancing mental and physical health, ensuring food security, and protecting biodiversity. In the structural analysis of Tehran’s future, 18 key indicators were identified. Results showed that indicators such as increasing per capita green space and improving ventilation exert the highest influence, while soil permeability and reduced runoff were the most influenced. Based on these findings, three plausible scenarios emerged: an optimistic scenario of a sustainable green city, a moderate scenario of limited green development, and a pessimistic scenario of environmental crisis, each with distinct implications for the resilience and sustainability of Tehran.Green infrastructure has been widely recognized as a strategic pathway for improving environmental efficiency and reducing ecological pressures, although constraints such as land scarcity, financial limitations, and human resource shortages hinder its full implementation. A review of 427 articles indicated that only a small fraction directly addressed the relationship between green infrastructure and environmental efficiency, with most focusing on cost-effectiveness. Keyword co-occurrence analysis identified four major thematic clusters: urban heat and air pollution management, stormwater management and cost-efficiency, human well-being and environmental justice, and nature-based solutions for environmental quality. The benefits of green infrastructure, classified into regulating, supporting, cultural, and provisioning dimensions, encompass services ranging from reducing heat islands and improving air and water quality to safeguarding biodiversity and promoting urban health. The trajectory of research has shifted from economic evaluations toward multidimensional analyses incorporating resilience, climate change, and natural resource management. Futures analysis demonstrated that indicators such as air ventilation and per capita green space have the greatest influence, while soil permeability and protection of native species are most influenced. Accordingly, three scenarios were formulated: (1) an optimistic scenario characterized by large-scale investment and maximum environmental efficiency; (2) a moderate scenario marked by limited investment and partial achievement of goals; and (3) a pessimistic scenario, shaped by resource scarcity and poor governance, leading to environmental crises.