1.Introduction
The Central Zagros mountain range, as one of the most important centers of biodiversity in Iran and part of the Irano-Turanian phytogeographic region, holds a unique position in ecological sustainability and in supporting the livelihoods of local communities. This region, which contains about 5 million hectares of Persian oak (Quercus brantii) forests, is not only important in terms of soil conservation, water cycle regulation, and climate moderation, but also directly and indirectly affects the lives of about 10% of the country’s population and more than half of Iran’s nomadic communities. However, in recent decades, factors such as land-use change, overexploitation, overgrazing, recurrent wildfires, pest and disease outbreaks, successive droughts, and climate change have caused extensive quantitative and qualitative decline of Persian oak forests. Oak dieback, especially in the Central Zagros, is considered one of the most serious threats to the sustainability of these forests. Since the Persian oak plays a keystone role in these ecosystems, identifying the environmental factors that determine its distribution and delineating suitable habitats is an undeniable necessity for sustainable natural resource management and conservation planning.
 
2. Methodology
This study aimed to model the current distribution of Persian oak in the Central Zagros and to identify the most important environmental variables affecting its habitat. To this end, the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt), one of the most efficient methods for species distribution modeling based on presence-only data, was employed. The required data included 322 occurrence points of Persian oak across four provinces located in the Central Zagros (Lorestan, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, and Ilam) along with a set of environmental variables. Input variables consisted of 19 bioclimatic (BioClim) variables derived from daily data of 20 synoptic stations during 2000–2023, physiographic factors (elevation, slope, and aspect), and land use/land cover. Station-based data were used instead of simulated data or global datasets such as WorldClim and CHELSA to increase model accuracy in the mountainous and heterogeneous conditions of the region. Model prediction accuracy was evaluated using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) index.
3. Results
The modeling results indicated that the MaxEnt algorithm, with an AUC value of 0.926, exhibited high accuracy and performance in predicting the distribution of Persian oak. Variable contribution analysis revealed that four factors—elevation, slope, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), and temperature seasonality (Bio4)—played the most significant roles in determining habitat suitability. Response curves showed that the probability of oak presence was highest in the elevation range of 1000 to 2300 meters above sea level. The species was also more frequent on slopes of 5–27 degrees, in north-facing aspects, and in areas with annual precipitation between 400 and 1100 mm. The habitat suitability map demonstrated that only 11.12% of the study area (about 15,038 km²) fell into the suitable habitat class. These areas were mainly concentrated in parts of Lorestan and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad provinces.
 
4. Discussion
The findings indicate that Persian oak has a strong dependency on semi-humid conditions and specific topographic features. In other words, climatic and topographic constraints are the main determinants of the species’ distribution and establishment, and changes in these conditions can profoundly affect the sustainability of oak forests. The role of precipitation, particularly in the driest month, highlights the importance of moisture availability for oak survival and growth. Furthermore, the influence of temperature and its seasonal variability demonstrates the species’ sensitivity to thermal fluctuations and potential vulnerability to climate change. Comparison with previous studies shows that both climatic and anthropogenic factors simultaneously affect the dynamics and distribution of oak forests. For instance, Melkian et al. (2020) reported a marked reduction of suitable oak habitats in northern areas, with a shift toward higher elevations. Similarly, Mehri et al. (2024) showed that areas with high topographic diversity have greater capacity to withstand climate change, whereas traditional land use such as livestock grazing exerts additional pressure on oak stands. The present study also emphasizes that only a limited portion of the Central Zagros offers ecologically suitable conditions for Persian oak, and any human-induced pressure can further threaten this already restricted range. The use of station-based climatic data in this study enhanced prediction accuracy, as global datasets often fail to capture the microclimatic heterogeneity of mountainous regions.
 
5. Conclusion
This research demonstrated that the distribution of Persian oak in the Central Zagros is strongly influenced by climatic and topographic variables, and that only a small percentage of the region constitutes suitable habitat. These findings reveal the vulnerability of this species to climate change and human pressures, and can serve as a practical tool for identifying priority conservation areas, designing oak forest restoration programs, and managing natural resources sustainably. Given the ongoing trend of forest degradation in the Zagros, ecological modeling based on real data can provide valuable guidance for policymakers and natural resource managers in scientific and evidence-based planning. Therefore, it is recommended that future studies not only strengthen the climatic monitoring network in mountainous regions but also assess the impacts of climate change scenarios on the future distribution of Persian oak, in order to enable the development of adaptive strategies in response to environmental changes.
In the preparation and writing of this article, all authors (first, second, and third) have contributed equally and jointly. All stages of the research, from study design and data collection to analysis of results and final writing of the article, are the result of collaboration and collective agreement of all authors.
 
Data Availability Statement
Data available on request from the authors.
 
Acknowledgements
We are very grateful to everyone who assisted us in conducting this research.
Ethical Considerations
All authors affirm that this research was conducted in accordance with ethical standards, with no data fabrication, falsification, or plagiarism.
 
Funding
This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
 
Conflict of Interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest