Journal of the Geographical Studies of Mountainous Areas

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Shamshiri S, Sotoudeh F. Investigation of the Climate Change Effects on Rapeseed Cultivation in Hamadan Province. JGSMA 2021; 2 (2) :109-124
URL: http://gsma.lu.ac.ir/article-1-156-en.html

One of the important consequences of climate change is its effects on crops and the agricultural economy. Hamedan province as one of the provinces with major agricultural products has always been affected by this outcome. This study was conducted to reveal the consequences of climate change on rapeseed cultivation in Hamadan province using new data mining models (RF and SWM). The study period is 2020-2001. In addition to the trend of climate change, the yield and area under cultivation of this crop and the effects of climate change on it have been studied. According to the obtained results, it was found that the most effects on rapeseed yield are related to changes in sunshine and rainfall hours, which is more seen in the southwestern and northern regions of the province. It was identified in the drawn maps of RF and SWM models. The results of both models are largely consistent and based on the outputs of the stochastic forest model and the support vector machine; it was found that these models have the necessary efficiency to investigate the relationship between crop yield and climatic parameters. According to the results, the highest correlation between canola yield and changes in sunshine hours and the lowest is with the minimum temperature. According to the SVM model, sunny hours have the greatest impact on the performance of canola. The results showed that there is a significant relationship between rapeseed yield and climate change in Hamadan province. The results of this research can be useful in agricultural planning and economic development of Hamedan province.