Journal of Geographical Studies of Mountainous Areas

Journal of Geographical Studies of Mountainous Areas

Threat Assessment of Key Assets from a Passive Defense Perspective (Case Study: Key Assets of Tehran City)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Mohsen Kahuri 1
Alireza Abdullahzadeh Fard 2
Ali Shamsoddini 3
1 Department of Urban Planning, Qeshm International Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qeshm, Iran.
2 Department of Urban Planning, Safashahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Safashahr, Iran.
3 Department of Geography, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran.
10.22034/gsma.2025.2034588.1010
Abstract
1. Introduction
Tehran city, considering its importance as the command and control center for most of the country's defense, security, political, and economic systems, and given the level of external and internal threats to the Islamic Republic of Iran in the world as the core of Islamic resistance globally, and the presence of important land uses such as ministries, embassies, higher education institutions, medical centers and public hospitals, major economic companies, etc., indicates the high importance of this region from an urban and national perspective.
Passive defense is considered the foundation for sustainable development and one of the most effective and enduring methods of defense against threats, encompassing various domains of urban spaces. This type of defense pursues five core objectives: increasing deterrence, reducing vulnerability, continuing essential activities, enhancing national stability, and facilitating crisis management (Ghazanfari, 2013:3). In this regard, the research objectives are as follows:
Identifying the key assets of the case study
Identifying and assessing intentional man-made threats to the key assets of the case study
Presenting solutions to reduce the occurrence of intentional man-made threats in the key assets of the case study
 
2. Methodology
The present study, in terms of type, falls under applied research, and in terms of nature, is considered descriptive-analytical research. In the stage of identifying intentional man-made threats facing key assets, the library method (qualitative) was used, and for assessing the probability of threat occurrence, a questionnaire (quantitative) was employed. The data analysis method is the integrated AHP-FEMA method.
 
3. Results
The research results indicate that the highest probability of threat occurrence for Mehrabad Airport asset, in order, includes: air and missile attacks with a score of 8.86, chemical, microbial, and nuclear attacks with 7.975, and the threat of ground attacks with 7.797. For Milad Hospital asset, the highest probability of threat occurrence, in order, includes: aerial and missile bombardment with 7.041, terrorist attacks with 6.536, and biological threats with 6.275. For Tehran's 6th Water Treatment Plant asset, the highest probability of threat occurrence, in order, includes: cyber attacks with 5, technical sabotage with 4.79, and bombing with 4.617. For the [unspecified] asset, the highest probability of threat occurrence, in order, includes: unrest and riots with 5.719, biological attacks with 5.008, and air and missile attacks with 4.714. And for key administrative centers asset (Islamic Consultative Assembly), the highest probability of threat occurrence, in order, includes: terrorist attacks with 6.376, arson with 5.213, and unrest and riots with 4.809. Finally, to reduce the effects and consequences of the threats, solutions were proposed.
 
4. Discussion
The results of this research present an alarming picture of the vulnerability of Tehran's critical assets against a wide range of intentional man-made threats. Specifically, the threat ranking for each key asset reveals the nature and priority of the risks it faces. For example, Mehrabad Airport, as a strategic target, is assessed to be most exposed to conventional and unconventional military threats (aerial, missile, chemical, microbial, and nuclear), indicating the sensitivity of this infrastructure in hypothetical large-scale conflicts. In contrast, Milad Hospital and key administrative centers (such as the Parliament), despite a significant probability of bombardment, are more exposed to threats of a terrorist and internal unrest nature (terrorism, arson, unrest), reflecting their vulnerability to non-military actions and internal violence. A notable case is Tehran's Water Treatment Plant No. 6, whose highest identified threats are cyber-attacks and technical sabotage. This emphasizes the heavy reliance of urban critical infrastructure on digital control systems and their vulnerability to asymmetric warfare and sabotage. An important point in the data is the lack of explicit naming of the fourth asset in the text, which is ranked highest with threats such as unrest and biological attacks. Overall, the findings suggest that the passive defense approach in Tehran cannot be uniform and centralized; rather, tailored damage reduction strategies must be designed and implemented according to the nature of each asset (military, medical, critical-urban, administrative-political) and its specific threat spectrum (from full-scale war to sabotage and unrest). The focus of the research on intentional threats highlights the necessity of strengthening physical, cyber, and human security measures alongside purely structural defensive actions.
 
5. Conclusion
The results of this study clearly demonstrate that securing Tehran's critical assets requires a differentiated and multi-layered approach. A uniform defense strategy is not applicable to all; rather, security measures—whether physical, cyber, or human—must be specifically designed and strengthened to counter the unique threat spectrum of each asset.
 
Author Contributions
In the preparation and writing of this article, all author has contributed equally and jointly. All stages of the research, from study design and data collection to analysis of results and final writing of the article, are the result of collaboration and collective agreement of all authors.
 
Data Availability Statement
Data available on request from the authors
 
Acknowledgments
I would like to thank and appreciate all the tourists who participated in this research.
 
Ethical Considerations
All authors affirm that this research was conducted in accordance with ethical standards, with no data fabrication, falsification, or plagiarism.
 
Funding
This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
 
Conflict of Interest
The author declares no conflict of interes
Keywords
Man-made threats key assets
Passive Defense
Tehran City
AHP-FEMA method
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Journal of Geographical Studies of Mountainous Areas
Volume 6, Issue 3 - Serial Number 23
Autumn
Summer 2025
Pages 197-212