1. Introduction

Floods, as one of the most devastating hydrometeorological hazards, pose significant threats to sustainable development worldwide. They not only lead to extensive human casualties but also cause massive economic losses by destroying agricultural lands, housing, infrastructure, and public assets. The increasing frequency and intensity of floods, fueled by climate change and unplanned human activities such as deforestation and urban expansion, have exacerbated global vulnerability.

Although improvements in early warning systems have stabilized flood-related fatalities, economic damages continue to rise, reflecting gaps in disaster-conscious urban planning. Consequently, flood management requires integrated strategies combining structural solutions—like dams and drainage systems—with nonstructural measures such as land-use planning, insurance, public education, and institutional coordination.

Integrated Flood Management (IFM), introduced two decades ago, promotes multi-sectoral coordination and capacity development for reducing flood risks while supporting sustainable development. Iran, particularly, faces frequent and destructive floods that significantly affect its economy and urban life. Among Iranian cities, Poldokhtar, located in Lorestan Province and traversed by the Kashkan River, stands out as highly vulnerable due to its geographical and topographical characteristics.

Urban vulnerability in such flood-prone cities is intensified by unplanned urban expansion, noncompliance with construction standards, and limited institutional coordination. In this context, futures studies—which analyze possible, probable, and preferable future scenarios—provide a valuable framework for proactive urban management. By applying foresight, municipalities can adopt long-term strategies to mitigate risk and strengthen resilience.

Given this context, the present study addresses the central research question:

What are the key driving forces influencing the performance of urban management in addressing flood vulnerability in Poldokhtar over the next decade?

The study’s objective is to identify and analyze the strategic drivers that will determine urban resilience to floods in Poldokhtar by the horizon year 1414 (2035), thereby guiding sustainable policy-making and disaster risk reduction.

2. Methodology

This applied, descriptive–analytical research adopts a futures studies framework to identify the most influential drivers shaping urban flood management. Data collection was carried out through documentary and field methods, supported by expert questionnaires. The analysis covered the period 1398–1402 (2019-2023).

Given the expert-oriented nature of scenario planning, the study relied on a purposive sample of 25 specialists, including mayors, city council members, provincial officials, engineers, and urban planners from key institutions such as the Lorestan Regional Water Company and the Natural Resources Department. Their expertise ensured the validity and reliability of the findings.

Data analysis employed the Delphi method and the MICMAC (Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification) technique to identify and classify the variables influencing urban flood management. Experts evaluated the mutual relationships among variables using a Likert scale (0–3), where 0 represented no influence and 3 indicated strong influence. The MICMAC matrix facilitated the identification of factors with high influence and low dependence, which were deemed key drivers.

This systematic process provided both quantitative and qualitative insights into the structure of relationships among variables influencing flood vulnerability management in Poldokhtar.

3. Results

The expert panel’s input resulted in a 92.85% matrix filling rate, demonstrating strong interconnectivity among the identified factors. The MICMAC analysis revealed four primary drivers exhibiting high influence and low dependence, thereby exerting the greatest impact on the city’s flood management system:

1.Establishment of a standardized crisis management system, including regulations, funding mechanisms, and comprehensive plans for flood response.

2.Implementation of effective management across pre-, during-, and post-flood phases, ensuring coordinated and timely responses.

3.Creation of a specialized flood management and interagency coordination organization to unify efforts among institutions and the public.

4.Adoption of modern global knowledge and technology to enhance the scientific and technical basis of flood management.

These factors were identified as the most strategic levers for improving the performance of urban management. In contrast, variables such as public education, insurance expansion, vegetation control, and hazard map updates were found to have higher dependency and thus secondary influence.

The indirect influence analysis reaffirmed the dominance of managerial and organizational drivers, underlining that developing institutional capacity and a coherent management framework offers the most sustainable route toward urban resilience in Poldokhtar.

4. Discussion

Floods in Poldokhtar have repeatedly demonstrated the devastating consequences of insufficient preparedness and fragmented management. Given the city’s exposure—stemming from the Kashkan River, its basin morphology, and the concentration of settlements in flood-prone zones—strengthening urban management is paramount.

The study’s use of futures thinking and MICMAC structural analysis revealed that managerial reform and institutional coordination are the most critical factors for shaping an adaptive and resilient urban system. The four identified drivers serve as strategic pillars for improving flood management performance:

1. Standardized Crisis Management System: Establishing unified legal, institutional, and operational frameworks is essential for ensuring consistent and rapid decision-making during flood emergencies. Such systems must define roles, financing mechanisms, and cross-sectoral responsibilities, promoting an integrated approach across governmental and municipal levels.

2. Phased Flood Management (Before–During–After): Adopting a temporal management model enhances preparedness (through risk mapping and early warning), enables efficient crisis response (through real-time coordination), and supports rapid recovery and reconstruction post-flooding.

3. Institutional and Public Coordination: Flood management cannot rely solely on municipal bodies. Effective outcomes depend on collaboration among governmental agencies, NGOs, and citizens. Establishing a dedicated Flood Management Organization could facilitate data sharing, resource mobilization, and public participation.

4. Integration of Global Knowledge and Technology: Drawing on international experiences, advanced hydrological modeling, and remote sensing tools can modernize Iran’s flood management practices. Continuous training and exchange programs would also enhance local expertise.

The analysis underscores that institutional reform and foresight are vital for building resilience. The findings align with global trends emphasizing proactive governance, interagency coordination, and knowledge-based urban planning (Evers, 2006; Khajenenejad et al., 2024). By adopting these strategies, Poldokhtar can shift from reactive disaster response to proactive risk mitigation.