Assessment of Key Factors Affecting Natural Hazards in the Tourist Destinations of Tarom Township

Mohammadlo, Maryam; Einali, Jamshid; Abbasi, Mohammadjavad; Raispour, Kohzad; Abbasi, Ghamar

doi:10.22034/gsma.2026.2062238.1090

Assessment of Key Factors Affecting Natural Hazards in the Tourist Destinations of Tarom Township

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Maryam Mohammadlo ¹

Jamshid Einali ¹

Mohammadjavad Abbasi ²

Kohzad Raispour ¹

Ghamar Abbasi ¹

¹ Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran.

² Department of Tourism, Faculty of Humanities, Bu -Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran.

10.22034/gsma.2026.2062238.1090

Abstract

1. Introduction
Tarom Township, due to its distinctive natural and geographical features, is vulnerable to natural hazards such as floods, earthquakes, and mass movements. Considering the region's high tourism potential, effective risk control and management are imperative. The initial step toward achieving this critical goal involves the assessment and identification of the key factors contributing to these natural hazards.

2. Methodology
This study adopts an analytical-exploratory approach. Data were collected through documentary-library research, field surveys, questionnaires, and interviews. The statistical population comprised ten experts from Zanjan Province specializing in geo-tourism of the Tarom region. The Delphi method was implemented over three rounds, engaging these specialists in a dedicated expert panel through both open- and closed-ended questions. To identify vulnerable areas in Tarom Township against floods, mass movements, and earthquakes, various parameters were utilized, including hazard checklists and risk matrices. Relevant datasets such as the 30-meter Digital Elevation Model (DEM), 1: 100,000 geological maps, 1: 50,000 topographic maps, and spatial layers depicting faults, earthquake epicenters, transportation routes, and land use were incorporated. ArcGIS software served as the primary analytical tool for map generation. After identifying the key factors influencing the occurrence of the three hazards (including elevation, slope aspect, slope degree, distance from rivers, lithology, land use, proximity to earthquake epicenters and faults, and distance from roads) the Analytic Network Process (ANP) was employed to assign weights to these parameters. Subsequently, fuzzy logic techniques were applied to fuzzify, integrate, and combine the spatial data layers.
3. Results
To identify flood-prone areas, six geomorphological and environmental parameters were considered: elevation, slope, slope aspect, distance from rivers, land use, and lithology. Among these, slope carried the highest weight (0.22), followed by distance from rivers (0.20) and land use (0.18). For assessing susceptibility to mass movements, eight parameters were analyzed: elevation, slope, slope aspect, distance from rivers, distance from roads, distance from faults, lithology, and land use. The slope parameter exerted the greatest influence with a weight of 0.28, followed by lithology at 0.20. In the earthquake vulnerability assessment, four parameters were employed: distance from earthquake epicenters, distance from faults, slope, and lithology. The weighting results indicated that distance from faults had the most significant impact (0.30), closely followed by distance from epicenters (0.283).
4. Discussion
This study evaluated the influential factors affecting natural hazards in the tourist destinations of Tarom Township by examining vulnerability to floods, earthquakes, and mass movements using weighted and fuzzified parameters, including elevation, slope, slope aspect, distance from rivers, distance from roads, distance from faults, distance from epicenters, land use, and lithology. Based on these analyses, separate vulnerability maps were generated for each hazard, clearly delineating the exposure levels of tourist destinations to the respective hazards.
5. Conclusion
The analysis clearly revealed that slope is the most critical and decisive factor influencing flood occurrence in the study area. Its influence lies in its direct control over surface runoff distribution, velocity, and concentration patterns, which significantly affect the potential for water accumulation and overflow during heavy precipitation events. Steeper slopes tend to accelerate runoff, reducing infiltration time and increasing surface flow, thereby contributing to higher flood intensity. This is closely followed by the factor of proximity to rivers, as areas located nearer to water channels are naturally at greater risk due to potential riverbank overflows and drainage congestion. Land use emerged as the third key contributor, highlighting how different types of land exploitation—such as urban development, agricultural activity, or deforestation—can either exacerbate or mitigate flood vulnerability. Additionally, elevation plays a meaningful role, since low-lying areas inherently tend to accumulate more water, making them more prone to inundation. In terms of mass movements, slope again emerged as the dominant factor, reflecting its foundational role in slope instability, soil displacement, and landslide initiation. Lithology, or the type and structural characteristics of underlying rocks, was identified as the second most influential factor. Certain rock types lack cohesion or are heavily fractured, making slopes more susceptible to failure. The proximity to roads was also a notable factor, as roads cut into natural slopes and disturb the structural equilibrium of hillsides, thus increasing the likelihood of slope failure and landslides. For earthquake hazards, the most influential parameter was the distance from active faults, underscoring the geophysical reality that seismic energy is more intensely released and felt closer to fault zones. The distance from epicenters was also found to be critical, since the intensity and destructiveness of seismic waves decrease with distance from the quake origin. Additionally, slope was identified once again as a contributing factor, affecting how seismic energy is amplified or dampened based on terrain configuration.
In summary, the integrated assessment of natural hazard determinants in Tarom’s tourism zones underscores the region's significant exposure to geohazards. Effective risk mitigation requires a multi-pronged approach, including the reinforcement of critical infrastructure, comprehensive land use planning that accounts for geological vulnerabilities, and proactive strategies aimed at hazard prevention. Furthermore, the incorporation of advanced geospatial technologies for real-time hazard monitoring, early warning systems, and predictive modeling is essential. These tools, combined with accurate spatial data analysis, can significantly enhance disaster preparedness, minimize potential damages, and improve the overall resilience of the region to natural threats.
Author Contributions
All authors participated in data collection, preparation of the research report, and data analysis.
Data Availability Statement
Contact the authors for more information.
Acknowledgements
This article is an excerpt from the Master’s thesis of the first author, conducted under the supervision of the second and third authors and with the consultation of the fourth and fifth authors. The esteemed reviewers are thanked for their structural and scientific comments.
Ethical Considerations
The author s has observed ethical principles in conducting and publishing this scientific research, and this is confirmed by them.
Funding
This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Conflict of Interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest

Keywords

Natural hazards

Tourist destinations

Flood

Earthquake

Mass movements

Tarom township

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